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James Madison Dukes
1-0 · #23 Elo
at
Thu, Oct 22, 7:00 PM ET
Kidd Brewer Stadium
Appalachian State Mountaineers
1-0 · #154 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline —
The read
On rating alone James Madison Dukes are 16.3 points better (#23 vs #154 of 240), and APP add 0.0 for home field.
Who has the edge
Rating
Clear edge
JMU
JMU rated 16.3 points better on Elo (#154 vs #23).
Home & rest
Even
—
APP gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
APP
APP +52.0 per game over the last five, JMU +7.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
James Madison DukesAppalachian State Mountaineers
1706 Elo · #23
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
JMU +16.3 pts
1412 Elo · #154
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
+4.7 pts vs APP D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
JMU +12.7 pts
−8.0 pts vs JMU D
W · +7.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
APP +22.5 pts
W · +52.0
+12.3
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
JMU +23.7 pts
−11.4
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| JMU | APP | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| 20.0 | Points for / game | 55.0 |
| 13.0 | Points against / game | 3.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| W | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| JMU | APP | |
|---|---|---|
| 1706 | Elo | 1412 |
| #23 of 240 | Rank | #154 of 240 |
| +6.8 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +0.5 |
| +8.5 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +2.1 |
| 1370 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1407 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| JMU | APP | |
|---|---|---|
| −0.9 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | −12.7 |
| 0.208 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | — |
| 0.033 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | — |
| 45% / 31% | Success rate (off / def) | —% / —% |
| 1.30 / 1.43 | Explosiveness (off / def) | — / — |
| 588 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 622 |
| 8% | Returning production | 38% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2025 | APP 10 at JMU 58 | JMU · JMU covered |
| 2024 | JMU 20 at APP 34 | APP · APP covered |
| 2023 | APP 26 at JMU 23 | APP · APP covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- JMU +16.3 pts
- Home field
- APP +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- —
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.