Probetrics — Sports Analytics

East Carolina Pirates

2026: 0-1 · Elo 1590 · #49 of 240 · 10.0 for, 48.0 against · ATS 0-1

Next: vs APP · Sep 12

Rating trajectory The model's Elo after each week, this season in blue and last season in grey. 1500 is league average; every 22 (NFL) or 18 (college) points is about one point of spread.

15901500 = average

Model on this team

No locked picks graded yet this season.

SP+ (2026)
-2.3
SP+ (2025)
+8.0
Talent composite
624
Returning production
14%

How they play

Pass rate
46%
Standard-down share
74%
Plays / game
67
Possession / game
28:20

Offense · best and worst (of 135)

Pass success rate
#11 · 49%
Stuff rate
#12 · 14%
Passing-down PPA
#13 · +0.49
Third-down conversion
#15 · 47%
Rush explosiveness
#120 · 0.83
Power success
#93 · 69%
Yards / rush
#89 · 4.1
Rushing PPA / play
#77 · +0.09

Defense · best and worst (of 135)

Power success
#1 · 49%
Stuff rate forced
#3 · 28%
Third-down conversion
#9 · 30%
Line yards / rush
#11 · 2.51
Interceptions forced
#127 · 1.3%
Rush explosiveness
#122 · 1.09
Completion %
#88 · 63%
Pass success rate
#45 · 39%
2026 schedule
DateOpponentResultLineModelATSCLV
Sep 5W1at#13 Alabama Crimson TideL 10–48+27.5ALA 71%
Sep 12W2vsAppalachian State Mountaineers-10ECU 77%
Sep 19W3atOld Dominion Monarchs
Sep 26W4vsNorth Carolina Central Eagles
Oct 10W6vsRice Owls
Oct 15W7atUAB Blazers
Oct 22W8atMemphis Tigers
Oct 31W9vsTemple Owls
Nov 6W10vsSouth Florida Bulls
Nov 14W11atCharlotte 49ers
Nov 21W12atArmy Black Knights
Nov 27W13vsFlorida Atlantic Owls

Line is this team's spread. Model, ATS and CLV are shown only for picks locked before kickoff; 1 played.