The read
On rating alone East Carolina Pirates are 9.9 points better (#49 vs #154 of 240), and ECU add 3.1 for home field. The model lands on ECU by 12.9 against a market ECU by 10, so the spread lean is ECU by 2.9 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%. On the total the model sees 53.7 against 56.5.
Who has the edge
The margin, factor by factor
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| APP | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 0-1 |
| 55.0 | Points for / game | 10.0 |
| 3.0 | Points against / game | 48.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| W | Last 5 | L |
Power ratings
| APP | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1412 | Elo | 1590 |
| #154 of 240 | Rank | #49 of 240 |
| +0.5 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +1.9 |
| +2.1 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +3.7 |
| 1407 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1743 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| APP | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| −12.7 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | −2.3 |
| — | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.209 |
| — | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.093 |
| —% / —% | Success rate (off / def) | 46% / 38% |
| — / — | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.18 / 1.28 |
| 622 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 624 |
| 38% | Returning production | 14% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2024 | APP 21 at ECU 19 | APP · ECU covered |
| 2023 | ECU 28 at APP 43 | APP · APP covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- ECU +9.9 pts
- Home field
- ECU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- ECU by 12.9
- Model total
- 53.7 vs 56.5
Market · 3 books
- Spread
- ECU -10
- Total
- 56.5
- Moneyline
- APP +275 · ECU -375
- Best price
- APP +295 draftkings · ECU -345 fanduel
| Book | ECU spread | Total | APP ML | ECU ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | — | — | +295 | -375 |
| fanduel | — | — | +270 | -345 |
| hardrockbet | — | — | +275 | -375 |
Consensus of the books we track, hourly, since we first priced the game. The arrow on the spread is from the home side: ▲ means the home side is laying more.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.