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Portland State Vikings at San Diego State Aztecs
Sat, Sep 5, 9:30 PM ET · Snapdragon Stadium · 80° · Mostly cloudy
SDSU -40.5 · O/U 62.5
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
SDSU
79%
model margin SDSU by 14.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
PRST +40.5
59%
26.4 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 62.5
54%
model total 52.1
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland State Vikings | 1386 | -6.7 | -8.2 | — | 0 |
| San Diego State Aztecs | 1584 | 0.4 | 6.7 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- SDSU +199 Elo
- Home field
- SDSU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- SDSU by 14.1
- Market spread
- SDSU -40.5
- Model total
- 52.1 vs 62.5
- Moneyline
- —
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.