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Spread USC -10.5Total 55.5Moneyline USC -470 · UCLA +360
The read
On rating alone USC Trojans are 14.9 points better (#20 vs #106 of 240), and UCLA add 0.0 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the passing game: USC passing ranks #4, UCLA defends it at #104; the other way UCLA #125 into USC's #41.
Who has the edge
Rating
Clear edge
USC
USC rated 14.9 points better on Elo (#106 vs #20).
Home & rest
Even
—
UCLA gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
Clear edge
USC
USC passing ranks #4, UCLA defends it at #104; the other way UCLA #125 into USC's #41.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
USC
USC rushing ranks #36, UCLA defends it at #130; the other way UCLA #20 into USC's #87.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
USC
USC third-down conversion ranks #5, UCLA defends it at #135; the other way UCLA #92 into USC's #80.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
USC
UCLA +21.0 per game over the last five, USC +27.5.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
USC
Consensus has USC by 10.5.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
USC TrojansUCLA Bruins
1722 Elo · #20
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
USC +14.9 pts
1455 Elo · #106
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
+7.9 pts vs UCLA D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
USC +18.2 pts
−10.3 pts vs USC D
W W · +27.5
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
USC +3.3 pts
W · +21.0
USC -10.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
USC +10.5 pts
UCLA +10.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸USC third-down conversion (#5) against a UCLA defense ranked #135 at stopping it
- ▸USC pass success rate (#4) against a UCLA defense ranked #126 at stopping it
- ▸USC points / scoring opportunity (#10) against a UCLA defense ranked #132 at stopping it
- ▸USC passing-down ppa (#10) against a UCLA defense ranked #129 at stopping it
- ▸USC standard-down ppa (#5) against a UCLA defense ranked #116 at stopping it
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
USC Trojans offense vs UCLA Bruins defense
ranks of 135| USC off | UCLA def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 50% | 45% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 73% | 74% | · |
| Plays / game | 61 | 58 | · |
| Possession / game | 29:50 | 30:49 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.52#4 | +0.33#104 | USC |
| Pass success rate | 52%#4 | 48%#126 | USC |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.63#36 | 1.41#15 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 9.2#8 | 7.2#72 | USC |
| Completion % | 67%#20 | 66%#116 | USC |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.9%#79 | 2.1%#87 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.18#36 | +0.23#130 | USC |
| Rush success rate | 46%#41 | 53%#134 | USC |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.95#74 | 0.89#29 | UCLA |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.16#29 | 3.32#127 | USC |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 16%#36 | 14%#128 | USC |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 75%#50 | 79%#115 | USC |
| Yards / rush | 5.2#21 | 5.2#128 | USC |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.27#5 | +0.19#116 | USC |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.50#10 | +0.45#129 | USC |
| Third-down conversion | 51%#5 | 55%#135 | USC |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.66#10 | 4.61#132 | USC |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 13.2%#33 | 12.0%#129 | USC |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.23#65 | 0.83#118 | USC |
UCLA Bruins offense vs USC Trojans defense
ranks of 135| UCLA off | USC def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 51% | 51% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 68% | 71% | · |
| Plays / game | 55 | 58 | · |
| Possession / game | 29:11 | 29:57 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.09#125 | +0.18#41 | USC |
| Pass success rate | 40%#93 | 43%#83 | · |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.29#135 | 1.56#76 | USC |
| Yards / pass attempt | 6.0#126 | 6.8#54 | USC |
| Completion % | 63%#55 | 66%#114 | UCLA |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.1%#11 | 2.5%#57 | UCLA |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.21#20 | +0.13#87 | UCLA |
| Rush success rate | 45%#54 | 47%#121 | UCLA |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.05#33 | 0.81#6 | USC |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.06#47 | 3.29#124 | UCLA |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 19%#77 | 18%#86 | · |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 65%#108 | 67%#33 | USC |
| Yards / rush | 4.5#63 | 4.4#79 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.05#101 | +0.08#60 | USC |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.28#79 | +0.34#93 | · |
| Third-down conversion | 37%#92 | 40%#80 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.98#123 | 3.53#56 | USC |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 15.9%#78 | 15.9%#62 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.08#46 | 1.38#56 | · |
Season
| USC | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| 40.5 | Points for / game | 45.0 |
| 13.0 | Points against / game | 24.0 |
| 2-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 0-0 / 1-0 |
| 1-1 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 1-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| W W | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| USC | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1722 | Elo | 1455 |
| #20 of 240 | Rank | #106 of 240 |
| +10.1 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −0.9 |
| +9.4 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +2.3 |
| 1426 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | — |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| USC | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| — | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | — |
| 0.329 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.125 |
| 0.156 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.253 |
| 49% / 45% | Success rate (off / def) | 42% / 50% |
| 1.32 / 1.17 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.17 / 1.12 |
| — | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | — |
| — | Returning production | — |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2025 | UCLA 10 at USC 29 | USC · UCLA covered |
| 2024 | USC 19 at UCLA 13 | USC · USC covered |
| 2023 | UCLA 38 at USC 20 | UCLA · UCLA covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- USC +14.9 pts
- Home field
- UCLA +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- USC -10.5
- Total
- 55.5
- Moneyline
- USC -470 · UCLA +360
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.