← College Football slate
Appalachian State Mountaineers
1-0 · #154 Elo
at
Fri, Nov 27, 3:00 PM ET
Hancock Whitney Stadium
South Alabama Jaguars
1-0 · #97 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline —
The read
On rating alone South Alabama Jaguars are 2.8 points better (#97 vs #154 of 240), and USA add 0.0 for home field.
Who has the edge
Rating
Slight edge
USA
USA rated 2.8 points better on Elo (#97 vs #154).
Home & rest
Even
—
USA gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
APP
USA +25.0 per game over the last five, APP +52.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Appalachian State MountaineersSouth Alabama Jaguars
1412 Elo · #154
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
USA +2.8 pts
1462 Elo · #97
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
+1.4 pts vs USA D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
APP +3.3 pts
−2.0 pts vs APP D
W · +52.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
APP +13.5 pts
W · +25.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| APP | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| 55.0 | Points for / game | 39.0 |
| 3.0 | Points against / game | 14.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| W | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| APP | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1412 | Elo | 1462 |
| #154 of 240 | Rank | #97 of 240 |
| +0.5 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +0.1 |
| +2.1 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | −0.8 |
| 1407 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1358 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| APP | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| −12.7 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | — |
| — | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.159 |
| — | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.238 |
| —% / —% | Success rate (off / def) | 42% / 43% |
| — / — | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.21 / 1.27 |
| 622 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | — |
| 38% | Returning production | — |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2024 | USA 48 at APP 14 | USA · USA covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- USA +2.8 pts
- Home field
- USA +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- —
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.