← College Football slate
Samford Bulldogs
0-2 last yr · #128 Elo
at
Sat, Nov 21, 3:30 PM ET
Jordan-Hare Stadium
Auburn Tigers
1-0 · #59 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline —
The read
On rating alone Auburn Tigers are 7.2 points better (#59 vs #128 of 240), and AUB add 0.0 for home field.
Who has the edge
Rating
Clear edge
AUB
AUB rated 7.2 points better on Elo (#59 vs #128).
Home & rest
Even
—
AUB gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
AUB
AUB +1.0 per game over the last five, SAM −41.5.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Samford BulldogsAuburn Tigers
1437 Elo · #128
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
AUB +7.2 pts
1566 Elo · #59
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
−16.9 pts vs AUB D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
AUB +21.4 pts
+4.5 pts vs SAM D
L L · −41.5
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
AUB +21.3 pts
W · +1.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| SAM | AUB | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 1-0 |
| 3.5 | Points for / game | 17.0 |
| 45.0 | Points against / game | 16.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-2 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 2-0 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 0-2 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| L L | Last 5 | W |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| SAM | AUB | |
|---|---|---|
| 1437 | Elo | 1566 |
| #128 of 240 | Rank | #59 of 240 |
| −6.2 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +2.5 |
| −2.1 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +10.7 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1520 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
| 2023 | SAM 13 at AUB 45 | AUB · SAM covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- AUB +7.2 pts
- Home field
- AUB +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- —
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.