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Chattanooga Mocs
0-1 last yr · #110 Elo
at
Sat, Nov 21, 2:00 PM ET
Bryant-Denny Stadium
Alabama Crimson Tide
1-0 · #15 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline —
The read
On rating alone Alabama Crimson Tide are 18.1 points better (#15 vs #110 of 240), and ALA add 0.0 for home field.
Who has the edge
Rating
Clear edge
ALA
ALA rated 18.1 points better on Elo (#15 vs #110).
Home & rest
Even
—
ALA gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
ALA
ALA +38.0 per game over the last five, UTC −35.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Chattanooga MocsAlabama Crimson Tide
1451 Elo · #110
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
ALA +18.1 pts
1776 Elo · #15
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
−16.4 pts vs ALA D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
ALA +30.7 pts
+14.3 pts vs UTC D
L · −35.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
ALA +36.5 pts
W · +38.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| UTC | ALA | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 1-0 |
| 10.0 | Points for / game | 48.0 |
| 45.0 | Points against / game | 10.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| L | Last 5 | W |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| UTC | ALA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1451 | Elo | 1776 |
| #110 of 240 | Rank | #15 of 240 |
| −4.0 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +10.1 |
| −4.3 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +12.3 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1623 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
| 2023 | UTC 10 at ALA 66 | ALA · ALA covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- ALA +18.1 pts
- Home field
- ALA +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- —
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.