← College Football slate
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles
0-1 last yr · #132 Elo
at
Sat, Nov 21, 1:00 PM ET
Davis Wade Stadium
Mississippi State Bulldogs
1-0 · #63 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline —
The read
On rating alone Mississippi State Bulldogs are 6.7 points better (#63 vs #132 of 240), and MSST add 0.0 for home field.
Who has the edge
Rating
Clear edge
MSST
MSST rated 6.7 points better on Elo (#63 vs #132).
Home & rest
Even
—
MSST gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
MSST
MSST +49.0 per game over the last five, TNTC −32.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Tennessee Tech Golden EaglesMississippi State Bulldogs
1432 Elo · #132
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
MSST +6.7 pts
1552 Elo · #63
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
−3.6 pts vs MSST D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
MSST +16.7 pts
+13.1 pts vs TNTC D
L · −32.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
MSST +40.5 pts
W · +49.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| TNTC | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 1-0 |
| 10.0 | Points for / game | 62.0 |
| 42.0 | Points against / game | 13.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| L | Last 5 | W |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| TNTC | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| 1432 | Elo | 1552 |
| #132 of 240 | Rank | #63 of 240 |
| −2.8 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +10.1 |
| −3.0 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +0.8 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1196 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- MSST +6.7 pts
- Home field
- MSST +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- —
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.