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Duke Blue Devils
1-0 · #32 Elo
at
Sat, Nov 14, 12:00 AM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Hurricanes
1-0 · #8 Elo
Spread MIA -21Total 55.5Moneyline DUKE +1000 · MIA -1800
The read
On rating alone Miami Hurricanes are 10.9 points better (#8 vs #32 of 240), and MIA add 0.0 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the third down & red zone: MIA third-down conversion ranks #19, DUKE defends it at #124; the other way DUKE #78 into MIA's #11.
Who has the edge
Rating
Clear edge
MIA
MIA rated 10.9 points better on Elo (#8 vs #32).
Home & rest
Even
—
MIA gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
Clear edge
MIA
MIA passing ranks #13, DUKE defends it at #124; the other way DUKE #24 into MIA's #21.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
MIA
MIA rushing ranks #76, DUKE defends it at #67; the other way DUKE #84 into MIA's #16.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
MIA
MIA third-down conversion ranks #19, DUKE defends it at #124; the other way DUKE #78 into MIA's #11.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
MIA
MIA +39.0 per game over the last five, DUKE +14.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
MIA
Consensus has MIA by 21.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Duke Blue DevilsMiami Hurricanes
1658 Elo · #32
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
MIA +10.9 pts
1855 Elo · #8
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
−10.1 pts vs MIA D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
MIA +15.8 pts
+5.7 pts vs DUKE D
W · +14.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
MIA +12.5 pts
W · +39.0
+6.6
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
MIA +14.1 pts
+20.7
DUKE +21
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
MIA +21.0 pts
MIA -21
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸MIA completion % (#4) against a DUKE defense ranked #126 at stopping it
- ▸MIA passing ppa / play (#13) against a DUKE defense ranked #124 at stopping it
- ▸MIA pass success rate (#10) against a DUKE defense ranked #119 at stopping it
- ▸MIA third-down conversion (#19) against a DUKE defense ranked #124 at stopping it
- ▸MIA points / scoring opportunity (#24) against a DUKE defense ranked #128 at stopping it
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Duke Blue Devils offense vs Miami Hurricanes defense
ranks of 135| DUKE off | MIA def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 55% | 55% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 70% | 64% | · |
| Plays / game | 66 | 57 | · |
| Possession / game | 29:44 | 26:56 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.39#24 | +0.13#21 | · |
| Pass success rate | 47%#20 | 38%#28 | · |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.59#44 | 1.46#30 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 7.9#39 | 6.3#24 | · |
| Completion % | 66%#25 | 60%#40 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.8%#75 | 2.3%#75 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.08#84 | +0.01#16 | MIA |
| Rush success rate | 45%#51 | 36%#10 | MIA |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.97#65 | 1.01#93 | DUKE |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.80#98 | 2.58#14 | MIA |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 22%#114 | 20%#49 | MIA |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 69%#85 | 73%#80 | · |
| Yards / rush | 4.3#80 | 3.0#9 | MIA |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.18#30 | −0.03#14 | · |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.40#30 | +0.21#29 | · |
| Third-down conversion | 39%#78 | 31%#11 | MIA |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.32#26 | 2.51#5 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 15.4%#67 | 18.9%#13 | MIA |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.00#28 | 1.56#35 | · |
Miami Hurricanes offense vs Duke Blue Devils defense
ranks of 135| MIA off | DUKE def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 48% | 50% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 74% | 68% | · |
| Plays / game | 60 | 67 | · |
| Possession / game | 33:04 | 30:16 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.43#13 | +0.41#124 | MIA |
| Pass success rate | 49%#10 | 46%#119 | MIA |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.51#87 | 1.65#106 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 8.2#29 | 8.4#124 | MIA |
| Completion % | 72%#4 | 67%#126 | MIA |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 3.2%#90 | 1.3%#129 | MIA |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.09#76 | +0.10#67 | · |
| Rush success rate | 45%#58 | 43%#73 | · |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.80#128 | 1.03#100 | DUKE |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.13#35 | 2.62#20 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 14%#16 | 23%#11 | · |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 83%#4 | 73%#84 | MIA |
| Yards / rush | 4.3#76 | 4.3#70 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.16#42 | +0.14#94 | MIA |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.37#42 | +0.44#127 | MIA |
| Third-down conversion | 47%#19 | 45%#124 | MIA |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.36#24 | 4.39#128 | MIA |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 12.1%#14 | 17.2%#36 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 0.94#25 | 1.71#22 | · |
Season
| DUKE | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| 17.0 | Points for / game | 45.0 |
| 3.0 | Points against / game | 6.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 0-0 / 1-0 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| W | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| DUKE | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1658 | Elo | 1855 |
| #32 of 240 | Rank | #8 of 240 |
| +8.2 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +10.9 |
| +5.2 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +18.3 |
| 1615 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1515 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| DUKE | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.6 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | +22.0 |
| 0.248 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.218 |
| 0.234 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.052 |
| 46% / 44% | Success rate (off / def) | 46% / 37% |
| 1.33 / 1.35 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.16 / 1.27 |
| 668 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 886 |
| 17% | Returning production | 37% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2024 | DUKE 31 at MIA 53 | MIA · MIA covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- MIA +10.9 pts
- Home field
- MIA +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- MIA -21
- Total
- 55.5
- Moneyline
- DUKE +1000 · MIA -1800
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.