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Toledo Rockets
0-1 · #67 Elo
at
Wed, Nov 4, 12:00 AM ET
Hornet Stadium
Sacramento State Hornets
1-1 · #173 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline —
The read
On rating alone Toledo Rockets are 7.9 points better (#67 vs #173 of 240), and SAC add 0.0 for home field.
Who has the edge
Rating
Clear edge
TOL
TOL rated 7.9 points better on Elo (#173 vs #67).
Home & rest
Even
—
SAC gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
SAC
SAC +20.5 per game over the last five, TOL −10.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Toledo RocketsSacramento State Hornets
1534 Elo · #67
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
TOL +7.9 pts
1392 Elo · #173
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
+2.6 pts vs SAC D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
TOL +13.3 pts
−10.7 pts vs TOL D
L · −10.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
SAC +15.3 pts
W L · +20.5
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| TOL | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 1-1 |
| 20.0 | Points for / game | 34.5 |
| 30.0 | Points against / game | 14.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-1 |
| 0-0-1 | Against the spread | 1-1 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-2 |
| L | Last 5 | W L |
Power ratings
| TOL | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1534 | Elo | 1392 |
| #67 of 240 | Rank | #173 of 240 |
| +1.5 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −3.0 |
| +7.7 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | −1.2 |
| 1444 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1300 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| TOL | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| −9.1 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | — |
| 0.183 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | -0.077 |
| -0.074 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.055 |
| 44% / 33% | Success rate (off / def) | 34% / 41% |
| 1.23 / 1.17 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.03 / 1.26 |
| 556 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | — |
| 66% | Returning production | — |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- TOL +7.9 pts
- Home field
- SAC +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- —
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.