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Spread —Total —Moneyline —
The read
On rating alone Texas A&M Aggies are 18.7 points better (#10 vs #86 of 240), and TA&M add 0.0 for home field.
Who has the edge
Rating
Clear edge
TA&M
TA&M rated 18.7 points better on Elo (#10 vs #86).
Home & rest
Even
—
TA&M gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
TA&M
TA&M +50.0 per game over the last five, CIT +2.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
The Citadel BulldogsTexas A&M Aggies
1473 Elo · #86
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
TA&M +18.7 pts
1810 Elo · #10
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
−15.0 pts vs TA&M D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
TA&M +29.7 pts
+14.7 pts vs CIT D
W · +2.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
TA&M +24.0 pts
W · +50.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| CIT | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| 43.0 | Points for / game | 50.0 |
| 41.0 | Points against / game | 0.0 |
| 0-0 / 1-0 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| W | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| CIT | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| 1473 | Elo | 1810 |
| #86 of 240 | Rank | #10 of 240 |
| −1.1 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +9.7 |
| −5.0 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +13.9 |
| 1129 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1355 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- TA&M +18.7 pts
- Home field
- TA&M +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- —
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.