Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Sacramento State Hornets
0-1 · #173 Elo
at
Sat, Oct 10, 12:00 AM ET
Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Bowling Green Falcons
0-1 · #225 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline —

The read

On rating alone Sacramento State Hornets are 5.9 points better (#173 vs #225 of 240), and BGSU add 0.0 for home field.

Who has the edge

Rating
Clear edge
SAC
SAC rated 5.9 points better on Elo (#225 vs #173).
Home & rest
Even
—
BGSU gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Slight edge
BGSU
BGSU −7.0 per game over the last five, SAC −11.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin

The margin, factor by factor

Sacramento State HornetsBowling Green Falcons
1392 Elo · #173
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
SAC +5.9 pts
1285 Elo · #225
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
−4.9 pts vs BGSU D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
SAC +2.0 pts
−6.9 pts vs SAC D
L · −11.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
BGSU +2.0 pts
L · −7.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—

Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).

Dissect the matchup

CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)

Season

SACBGSU
0-1Record0-1
17.0Points for / game13.0
28.0Points against / game20.0
0-0 / 0-1Home / road0-1 / 0-0
0-1Against the spread0-1
0-1Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean.0-1
LLast 5L

Power ratings

SACBGSU
1392Elo1285
#173 of 240Rank#225 of 240
−3.0Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted.−8.1
−1.2Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good.+1.9
1300Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season.1468

Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.

Advanced

SACBGSU
—SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average.−15.0
-0.077Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD).0.025
0.055Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better.0.153
34% / 41%Success rate (off / def)36% / 41%
1.03 / 1.26Explosiveness (off / def)1.23 / 1.31
—Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster.568
—Returning production-6%

Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Head to head

No meetings in our history.

How the margin was built

Rating gap
SAC +5.9 pts
Home field
BGSU +— pts
Rest
Even
Weather / roof
— pts on the total
Model margin
—
Model total
—

Market

Spread
—
Total
—
Moneyline
—

Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.