Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Appalachian State Mountaineers
1-0 · #154 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 AM ET
Carter-Finley Stadium
NC State Wolfpack
0-1 · #62 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline —

The read

On rating alone NC State Wolfpack are 7.9 points better (#62 vs #154 of 240), and NCSU add 0.0 for home field.

Who has the edge

Rating
Clear edge
NCSU
NCSU rated 7.9 points better on Elo (#62 vs #154).
Home & rest
Even
—
NCSU gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
APP
NCSU −26.0 per game over the last five, APP +52.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin

The margin, factor by factor

Appalachian State MountaineersNC State Wolfpack
1412 Elo · #154
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
NCSU +7.9 pts
1554 Elo · #62
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
−3.9 pts vs NCSU D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
NCSU +5.7 pts
+1.8 pts vs APP D
W · +52.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
APP +39.0 pts
L · −26.0
−11.4
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
NCSU +16.2 pts
+4.8
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—

Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).

Dissect the matchup

CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)

Season

APPNCSU
1-0Record0-1
55.0Points for / game8.0
3.0Points against / game34.0
1-0 / 0-0Home / road0-0 / 0-1
1-0Against the spread0-1
1-0Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean.0-1
WLast 5L

Power ratings

APPNCSU
1412Elo1554
#154 of 240Rank#62 of 240
+0.5Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted.+3.8
+2.1Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good.+4.5
1407Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season.1665

Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.

Advanced

APPNCSU
−12.7SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average.+5.7
—Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD).0.279
—Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better.0.208
—% / —%Success rate (off / def)44% / 39%
— / —Explosiveness (off / def)1.38 / 1.44
622Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster.757
38%Returning production60%

Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Head to head

No meetings in our history.

How the margin was built

Rating gap
NCSU +7.9 pts
Home field
NCSU +— pts
Rest
Even
Weather / roof
— pts on the total
Model margin
—
Model total
—

Market

Spread
—
Total
—
Moneyline
—

Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.