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North Dakota Fighting Hawks
0-1 last yr · #103 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 19, 7:15 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
Nebraska Cornhuskers
1-0 · #41 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline —
The read
On rating alone Nebraska Cornhuskers are 8.7 points better (#41 vs #103 of 240), and NEB add 0.0 for home field.
Who has the edge
Rating
Clear edge
NEB
NEB rated 8.7 points better on Elo (#41 vs #103).
Home & rest
Even
—
NEB gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
NEB
NEB +28.0 per game over the last five, UND −3.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
North Dakota Fighting HawksNebraska Cornhuskers
1456 Elo · #103
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
NEB +8.7 pts
1613 Elo · #41
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
−5.1 pts vs NEB D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
NEB +12.5 pts
+7.4 pts vs UND D
L · −3.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
NEB +15.5 pts
W · +28.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| UND | NEB | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 1-0 |
| 35.0 | Points for / game | 49.0 |
| 38.0 | Points against / game | 21.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| L | Last 5 | W |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| UND | NEB | |
|---|---|---|
| 1456 | Elo | 1613 |
| #103 of 240 | Rank | #41 of 240 |
| −0.6 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +6.8 |
| −0.6 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +4.4 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1478 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- NEB +8.7 pts
- Home field
- NEB +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- —
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.