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Nicholls Colonels
0-1 · #194 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
Sam Houston Bearkats
0-1 · #240 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline —
The read
On rating alone Nicholls Colonels are 13.9 points better (#194 vs #240 of 240), and SHSU add 0.0 for home field.
Who has the edge
Rating
Clear edge
NICH
NICH rated 13.9 points better on Elo (#240 vs #194).
Home & rest
Even
—
SHSU gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
SHSU
SHSU −3.0 per game over the last five, NICH −68.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Nicholls ColonelsSam Houston Bearkats
1361 Elo · #194
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
NICH +13.9 pts
1111 Elo · #240
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
−3.2 pts vs SHSU D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
SHSU +3.6 pts
+0.3 pts vs NICH D
L · −68.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
SHSU +32.5 pts
L · −3.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| NICH | SHSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 0-1 |
| 3.0 | Points for / game | 21.0 |
| 71.0 | Points against / game | 24.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| L | Last 5 | L |
Power ratings
| NICH | SHSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1361 | Elo | 1111 |
| #194 of 240 | Rank | #240 of 240 |
| −8.6 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −7.0 |
| −7.3 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | −5.3 |
| 1615 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1441 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- NICH +13.9 pts
- Home field
- SHSU +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- —
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.