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UT Martin Skyhawks
0-3 last yr · #207 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Memphis Tigers
2-0 · #36 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline —
The read
On rating alone Memphis Tigers are 16.6 points better (#36 vs #207 of 240), and MEM add 0.0 for home field.
Who has the edge
Rating
Clear edge
MEM
MEM rated 16.6 points better on Elo (#36 vs #207).
Home & rest
Even
—
MEM gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
MEM
MEM +12.0 per game over the last five, UTM −25.7.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
UT Martin SkyhawksMemphis Tigers
1346 Elo · #207
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
MEM +16.6 pts
1646 Elo · #36
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
−12.9 pts vs MEM D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
MEM +20.4 pts
+7.5 pts vs UTM D
L L L · −25.7
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
MEM +18.8 pts
W W · +12.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| UTM | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | Record | 2-0 |
| 11.3 | Points for / game | 34.5 |
| 37.0 | Points against / game | 22.5 |
| 0-0 / 0-3 | Home / road | 1-0 / 1-0 |
| 0-2 | Against the spread | 2-0 |
| 1-2 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-1 |
| L L L | Last 5 | W W |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| UTM | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 1346 | Elo | 1646 |
| #207 of 240 | Rank | #36 of 240 |
| −7.9 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +3.3 |
| −4.2 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +5.0 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1480 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- MEM +16.6 pts
- Home field
- MEM +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- —
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.