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Murray State Racers
0-2 last yr · #203 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET
Boone Pickens Stadium
Oklahoma State Cowboys
0-1 · #233 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline —
The read
On rating alone Murray State Racers are 5.5 points better (#203 vs #233 of 240), and OKST add 0.0 for home field.
Who has the edge
Rating
Clear edge
MUR
MUR rated 5.5 points better on Elo (#233 vs #203).
Home & rest
Even
—
OKST gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
OKST
OKST −14.0 per game over the last five, MUR −25.5.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Murray State RacersOklahoma State Cowboys
1351 Elo · #203
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
MUR +5.5 pts
1251 Elo · #233
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
−9.1 pts vs OKST D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
OKST +6.9 pts
−2.2 pts vs MUR D
L L · −25.5
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
OKST +5.8 pts
L · −14.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| MUR | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 0-1 |
| 15.5 | Points for / game | 10.0 |
| 41.0 | Points against / game | 24.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-2 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 2-0 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 0-2 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| L L | Last 5 | L |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| MUR | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| 1351 | Elo | 1251 |
| #203 of 240 | Rank | #233 of 240 |
| −6.8 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −8.1 |
| −5.9 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +2.3 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1345 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- MUR +5.5 pts
- Home field
- OKST +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- —
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.