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Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
1-0 · #126 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 11:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · 73° · Clear
USC Trojans
2-0 · #20 Elo
Spread USC -28.5Total 63.5Moneyline UL +2200 · USC -8000
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
USC -8000
87%
model margin USC by 19.0
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
UL +28.5
53%
9.5 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 63.5
53%
model total 54.7
The read
On rating alone USC Trojans are 15.8 points better (#20 vs #126 of 240), and USC add 3.1 for home field; USC carry a rest edge worth 0.2. The clearest mismatch is the passing game: USC passing ranks #4, UL defends it at #81; the other way UL #114 into USC's #41. The model lands on USC by 19.0 against a market USC by 28.5, so the spread lean is UL by 9.5 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%. On the total the model sees 54.7 against 63.5.
Who has the edge
Model: USC by 19.0 · market USC by 28.5
Rating
Clear edge
USC
USC rated 15.8 points better on Elo (#20 vs #126).
Home & rest
Clear edge
USC
USC gets 3.1 points for home field and USC 0.2 for rest.
Passing game
Clear edge
USC
USC passing ranks #4, UL defends it at #81; the other way UL #114 into USC's #41.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
USC
USC rushing ranks #36, UL defends it at #113; the other way UL #62 into USC's #87.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
USC
USC third-down conversion ranks #5, UL defends it at #107; the other way UL #59 into USC's #80.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Slight edge
UL
USC +27.5 per game over the last five, UL +31.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
USC
Consensus has USC by 28.5; the model says USC by 19.0.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: USC by 19.0 · market USC by 28.5
Louisiana Ragin' CajunsUSC Trojans
1438 Elo · #126
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
USC +15.8 pts
1722 Elo · #20
road
Home field
USC +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
USC +0.2 pts
8d
−10.0 pts vs USC D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
USC +17.7 pts
+7.7 pts vs UL D
W · +31.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
UL +1.8 pts
W W · +27.5
UL +28.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
USC +28.5 pts
USC -28.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸USC pass success rate (#4) against a UL defense ranked #112 at stopping it
- ▸USC completion % (#20) against a UL defense ranked #122 at stopping it
- ▸USC third-down conversion (#5) against a UL defense ranked #107 at stopping it
- ▸USC yards / pass attempt (#8) against a UL defense ranked #107 at stopping it
- ▸USC standard-down ppa (#5) against a UL defense ranked #100 at stopping it
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns offense vs USC Trojans defense
ranks of 135| UL off | USC def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 41% | 51% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 67% | 71% | · |
| Plays / game | 64 | 58 | · |
| Possession / game | 30:06 | 29:57 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.15#114 | +0.18#41 | USC |
| Pass success rate | 35%#127 | 43%#83 | USC |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.60#42 | 1.56#76 | UL |
| Yards / pass attempt | 6.1#124 | 6.8#54 | USC |
| Completion % | 55%#128 | 66%#114 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.6%#73 | 2.5%#57 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.13#62 | +0.13#87 | · |
| Rush success rate | 42%#85 | 47%#121 | UL |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.99#57 | 0.81#6 | USC |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.90#73 | 3.29#124 | UL |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 21%#104 | 18%#86 | · |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 71%#76 | 67%#33 | USC |
| Yards / rush | 4.6#50 | 4.4#79 | UL |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.07#93 | +0.08#60 | USC |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.20#105 | +0.34#93 | · |
| Third-down conversion | 41%#59 | 40%#80 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.45#95 | 3.53#56 | USC |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 16.0%#82 | 15.9%#62 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.46#91 | 1.38#56 | USC |
USC Trojans offense vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns defense
ranks of 135| USC off | UL def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 50% | 45% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 73% | 74% | · |
| Plays / game | 61 | 64 | · |
| Possession / game | 29:50 | 29:54 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.52#4 | +0.27#81 | USC |
| Pass success rate | 52%#4 | 45%#112 | USC |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.63#36 | 1.47#34 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 9.2#8 | 7.7#107 | USC |
| Completion % | 67%#20 | 66%#122 | USC |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.9%#79 | 3.7%#19 | UL |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.18#36 | +0.18#113 | USC |
| Rush success rate | 46%#41 | 48%#125 | USC |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.95#74 | 0.99#86 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.16#29 | 3.29#123 | USC |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 16%#36 | 17%#105 | USC |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 75%#50 | 73%#79 | USC |
| Yards / rush | 5.2#21 | 4.7#103 | USC |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.27#5 | +0.15#100 | USC |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.50#10 | +0.31#75 | USC |
| Third-down conversion | 51%#5 | 43%#107 | USC |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.66#10 | 3.33#36 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 13.2%#33 | 13.5%#109 | USC |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.23#65 | 1.38#52 | · |
Season
| UL | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 2-0 |
| 38.0 | Points for / game | 40.5 |
| 7.0 | Points against / game | 13.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 2-0 / 0-0 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 1-1 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-1 |
| W | Last 5 | W W |
Power ratings
| UL | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1438 | Elo | 1722 |
| #126 of 240 | Rank | #20 of 240 |
| −0.6 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +10.1 |
| +2.5 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +9.4 |
| 1422 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1426 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| UL | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| −10.6 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | — |
| 0.117 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.329 |
| 0.191 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.156 |
| 39% / 46% | Success rate (off / def) | 49% / 45% |
| 1.21 / 1.20 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.32 / 1.17 |
| 591 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | — |
| 92% | Returning production | — |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- USC +15.8 pts
- Home field
- USC +3.1 pts
- Rest
- USC +0.2 pts
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- USC by 19.0
- Model total
- 54.7 vs 63.5
Market · 1 books
- Spread
- USC -28.5
- Total
- 63.5
- Moneyline
- UL +2200 · USC -8000
- Best price
- UL +2200 draftkings · USC -8000 draftkings
| Book | USC spread | Total | UL ML | USC ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | -28.5 (-110) | 63.5 (-112/-108) | +2200 | -8000 |
Spreadopened USC -28.5 · now USC -28.5
Totalopened 63.5 · now 63.5
Consensus of the books we track, hourly, since we first priced the game. The arrow on the spread is from the home side: ▲ means the home side is laying more.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.