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Sacramento State Hornets
0-1 · #173 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 10:30 PM ET
Valley Children's Stadium · 85° · 15 mph wind · Partly sunny
Fresno State Bulldogs
0-1 · #76 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline SAC +693 · FRES -13792 books · best SAC +700 polymarketus · FRES -1329 polymarketus
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
FRES -1379
69%
model margin FRES by 8.5
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
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model total 43.4
The read
On rating alone Fresno State Bulldogs are 6.4 points better (#76 vs #173 of 240), and FRES add 3.1 for home field; SAC carry a rest edge worth 1.0.
Who has the edge
Model: FRES by 8.5
Rating
Clear edge
FRES
FRES rated 6.4 points better on Elo (#76 vs #173).
Home & rest
Clear edge
FRES
FRES gets 3.1 points for home field and SAC 1.0 for rest.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
SAC
FRES −39.0 per game over the last five, SAC −11.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: FRES by 8.5
Sacramento State HornetsFresno State Bulldogs
1392 Elo · #173
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
FRES +6.4 pts
1508 Elo · #76
road
Home field
FRES +3.1 pts
home
14d
Rest
SAC +1.0 pts
8d
−9.5 pts vs FRES D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
FRES +6.4 pts
−3.1 pts vs SAC D
L · −11.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
SAC +14.0 pts
L · −39.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| SAC | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 0-1 |
| 17.0 | Points for / game | 0.0 |
| 28.0 | Points against / game | 39.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| L | Last 5 | L |
Power ratings
| SAC | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| 1392 | Elo | 1508 |
| #173 of 240 | Rank | #76 of 240 |
| −3.0 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −4.3 |
| −1.2 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +6.5 |
| 1300 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1694 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| SAC | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| — | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | −1.4 |
| -0.077 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.107 |
| 0.055 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.106 |
| 34% / 41% | Success rate (off / def) | 39% / 39% |
| 1.03 / 1.26 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.26 / 1.18 |
| — | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 610 |
| — | Returning production | 38% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2024 | SAC 30 at FRES 46 | FRES · SAC covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- FRES +6.4 pts
- Home field
- FRES +3.1 pts
- Rest
- SAC +1.0 pts
- Weather / roof
- -1.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- FRES by 8.5
- Model total
- 43.4 vs —
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- SAC +693 · FRES -1379
- Best price
- SAC +700 polymarketus · FRES -1329 polymarketus
| Book | FRES spread | Total | SAC ML | FRES ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | — | — | +685 | -1429 |
| polymarketus | — | — | +700 | -1329 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.