← College Football slate
Cal Poly Mustangs
0-1 last yr · #151 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 9:00 PM ET
CEFCU Stadium · 80° · 10 mph wind · Cloudy
San José State Spartans
1-1 · #197 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline CP +1060 · SJSU -2300
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
SJSU -2300
50%
model margin SJSU by 0.2
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 60.0
The read
On rating alone Cal Poly Mustangs are 3.0 points better (#151 vs #197 of 240), and SJSU add 3.1 for home field; SJSU carry a rest edge worth 0.2.
Who has the edge
Model: SJSU by 0.2
Rating
Slight edge
CP
CP rated 3.0 points better on Elo (#197 vs #151).
Home & rest
Clear edge
SJSU
SJSU gets 3.1 points for home field and SJSU 0.2 for rest.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
SJSU
SJSU −5.0 per game over the last five, CP −54.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: SJSU by 0.2
Cal Poly MustangsSan José State Spartans
1413 Elo · #151
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
CP +3.0 pts
1358 Elo · #197
road
Home field
SJSU +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
SJSU +0.2 pts
8d
−1.5 pts vs SJSU D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
SJSU +6.0 pts
+4.5 pts vs CP D
L · −54.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
SJSU +24.5 pts
W L · −5.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| CP | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 1-1 |
| 9.0 | Points for / game | 26.5 |
| 63.0 | Points against / game | 31.5 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 0-0 / 1-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 2-0 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-1 |
| L | Last 5 | W L |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| CP | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1413 | Elo | 1358 |
| #151 of 240 | Rank | #197 of 240 |
| −4.6 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −2.1 |
| −6.5 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | −3.1 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1523 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
| 2023 | CP 3 at SJSU 59 | SJSU · SJSU covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- CP +3.0 pts
- Home field
- SJSU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- SJSU +0.2 pts
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- SJSU by 0.2
- Model total
- 60.0 vs —
Market · 1 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- CP +1060 · SJSU -2300
- Best price
- CP +1060 fanduel · SJSU -2300 fanduel
| Book | SJSU spread | Total | CP ML | SJSU ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| fanduel | — | — | +1060 | -2300 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.