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Grambling Tigers
0-1 last yr · #120 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 8:00 PM ET
Amon G. Carter Stadium · 100° · 17 mph wind · Partly sunny
TCU Horned Frogs
0-1 · #52 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline GRAM +2757 · TCU -3900
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
TCU -3900
76%
model margin TCU by 12.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 52.4
The read
On rating alone TCU Horned Frogs are 7.9 points better (#52 vs #120 of 240), and TCU add 3.1 for home field; TCU carry a rest edge worth 1.1.
Who has the edge
Model: TCU by 12.1
Rating
Clear edge
TCU
TCU rated 7.9 points better on Elo (#52 vs #120).
Home & rest
Clear edge
TCU
TCU gets 3.1 points for home field and TCU 1.1 for rest.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
TCU
TCU −5.0 per game over the last five, GRAM −70.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: TCU by 12.1
Grambling TigersTCU Horned Frogs
1443 Elo · #120
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
TCU +7.9 pts
1585 Elo · #52
road
Home field
TCU +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
TCU +1.1 pts
14d
−11.0 pts vs TCU D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
TCU +19.2 pts
+8.2 pts vs GRAM D
L · −70.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
TCU +32.5 pts
L · −5.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| GRAM | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 0-1 |
| 0.0 | Points for / game | 10.0 |
| 70.0 | Points against / game | 15.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 0-1 / 0-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| L | Last 5 | L |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| GRAM | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1443 | Elo | 1585 |
| #120 of 240 | Rank | #52 of 240 |
| −3.7 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +1.8 |
| −6.5 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +7.3 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1412 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- TCU +7.9 pts
- Home field
- TCU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- TCU +1.1 pts
- Weather / roof
- -1.9 pts on the total
- Model margin
- TCU by 12.1
- Model total
- 52.4 vs —
Market · 1 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- GRAM +2757 · TCU -3900
- Best price
- GRAM +2757 polymarketus · TCU -3900 polymarketus
| Book | TCU spread | Total | GRAM ML | TCU ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarketus | — | — | +2757 | -3900 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.