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Charlotte 49ers
0-1 · #238 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 7:45 PM ET
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · 88° · 10 mph wind · Mostly sunny
Ole Miss Rebels
13-2 last yr · #7 Elo
Spread —Total 57.5Moneyline CLT +2500 · MISS -41922 books · best CLT +2757 polymarketus · MISS -3484 kalshi
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
MISS -4192
98%
model margin MISS by 44.4
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 57.5
51%
model total 61.2
The read
On rating alone Ole Miss Rebels are 41.4 points better (#7 vs #238 of 240), and MISS add 3.1 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the passing game: MISS passing ranks #8, CLT defends it at #111; the other way CLT #117 into MISS's #20. On the total the model sees 61.2 against 57.5.
Who has the edge
Model: MISS by 44.4
Rating
Clear edge
MISS
MISS rated 41.4 points better on Elo (#7 vs #238).
Home & rest
Clear edge
MISS
MISS gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
Clear edge
MISS
MISS passing ranks #8, CLT defends it at #111; the other way CLT #117 into MISS's #20.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
MISS
MISS rushing ranks #49, CLT defends it at #128; the other way CLT #135 into MISS's #115.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
MISS
MISS third-down conversion ranks #36, CLT defends it at #115; the other way CLT #111 into MISS's #49.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
MISS
MISS +12.2 per game over the last five, CLT −2.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: MISS by 44.4
Charlotte 49ersOle Miss Rebels
1123 Elo · #238
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
MISS +41.4 pts
1868 Elo · #7
road
Home field
MISS +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−14.0 pts vs MISS D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
MISS +32.2 pts
+18.2 pts vs CLT D
L · −2.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
MISS +7.1 pts
L W W W W · +12.2
−26.7
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
MISS +50.7 pts
+24.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸MISS pass success rate (#7) against a CLT defense ranked #134 at stopping it
- ▸MISS passing-down ppa (#7) against a CLT defense ranked #119 at stopping it
- ▸MISS yards / pass attempt (#10) against a CLT defense ranked #117 at stopping it
- ▸MISS defense (#24 points / scoring opportunity allowed) against a CLT offense ranked #130
- ▸MISS passing ppa / play (#8) against a CLT defense ranked #111 at stopping it
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Charlotte 49ers offense vs Ole Miss Rebels defense
ranks of 135| CLT off | MISS def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 54% | 48% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 65% | 67% | · |
| Plays / game | 52 | 61 | · |
| Possession / game | 28:07 | 31:14 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.13#117 | +0.13#20 | MISS |
| Pass success rate | 35%#122 | 38%#29 | MISS |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.75#10 | 1.55#64 | CLT |
| Yards / pass attempt | 6.5#107 | 6.5#36 | MISS |
| Completion % | 59%#95 | 57%#20 | MISS |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.8%#41 | 1.7%#106 | CLT |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | −0.15#135 | +0.19#115 | · |
| Rush success rate | 34%#133 | 43%#77 | MISS |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.66#135 | 1.08#119 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.13#134 | 3.11#104 | MISS |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 24%#126 | 18%#83 | MISS |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 61%#124 | 70%#59 | MISS |
| Yards / rush | 2.7#133 | 4.2#62 | MISS |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | −0.09#134 | +0.05#45 | MISS |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.12#128 | +0.29#67 | MISS |
| Third-down conversion | 35%#111 | 37%#49 | MISS |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.73#130 | 3.10#24 | MISS |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 18.5%#120 | 16.7%#49 | MISS |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.92#128 | 1.00#106 | · |
Ole Miss Rebels offense vs Charlotte 49ers defense
ranks of 135| MISS off | CLT def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 49% | 47% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 72% | 76% | · |
| Plays / game | 67 | 64 | · |
| Possession / game | 28:46 | 31:53 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.46#8 | +0.34#111 | MISS |
| Pass success rate | 51%#7 | 53%#134 | MISS |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.56#60 | 1.34#4 | CLT |
| Yards / pass attempt | 9.0#10 | 8.1#117 | MISS |
| Completion % | 65%#38 | 68%#130 | MISS |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.7%#34 | 3.2%#33 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.15#49 | +0.22#128 | MISS |
| Rush success rate | 45%#52 | 55%#135 | MISS |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.96#66 | 0.86#19 | CLT |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.79#99 | 3.33#129 | MISS |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 21%#105 | 14%#131 | · |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 78%#25 | 81%#123 | MISS |
| Yards / rush | 4.6#46 | 5.0#119 | MISS |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.22#22 | +0.21#124 | MISS |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.53#7 | +0.42#119 | MISS |
| Third-down conversion | 43%#36 | 44%#115 | MISS |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.44#19 | 4.16#114 | MISS |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 13.3%#35 | 10.6%#133 | MISS |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 0.93#24 | 1.25#68 | MISS |
Season
| CLT | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 13-2 |
| 41.0 | Points for / game | 36.9 |
| 43.0 | Points against / game | 21.1 |
| 0-1 / 0-0 | Home / road | 9-1 / 4-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 9-6 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 8-7 |
| L | Last 5 | L W W W W |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| CLT | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| 1123 | Elo | 1868 |
| #238 of 240 | Rank | #7 of 240 |
| −5.0 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +14.0 |
| −4.2 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +9.0 |
| 1468 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | — |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| CLT | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| −24.1 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | +16.5 |
| -0.014 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.304 |
| 0.264 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.132 |
| 34% / 54% | Success rate (off / def) | 48% / 40% |
| 1.28 / 1.09 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.29 / 1.29 |
| 577 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 886 |
| 41% | Returning production | 50% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- MISS +41.4 pts
- Home field
- MISS +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- MISS by 44.4
- Model total
- 61.2 vs 57.5
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- 57.5
- Moneyline
- CLT +2500 · MISS -4192
- Best price
- CLT +2757 polymarketus · MISS -3484 kalshi
| Book | MISS spread | Total | CLT ML | MISS ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | — | — | +2242 | -3484 |
| polymarketus | — | 57.5 (+223/-233) | +2757 | -4900 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.