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Georgia Southern Eagles
1-0 · #117 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) · 83° · Sunny
Clemson Tigers
0-1 · #35 Elo
Spread CLEM -26.5Total 57.5Moneyline GASO +1700 · CLEM -4500
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
CLEM -4500
80%
model margin CLEM by 14.3
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
GASO +26.5
54%
12.2 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 57.5
54%
model total 46.7
The read
On rating alone Clemson Tigers are 11.3 points better (#35 vs #117 of 240), and CLEM add 3.1 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: CLEM rushing ranks #75, GASO defends it at #134; the other way GASO #39 into CLEM's #29. The model lands on CLEM by 14.3 against a market CLEM by 26.5, so the spread lean is GASO by 12.2 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%. On the total the model sees 46.7 against 57.5.
Who has the edge
Model: CLEM by 14.3 · market CLEM by 26.5
Rating
Clear edge
CLEM
CLEM rated 11.3 points better on Elo (#35 vs #117).
Home & rest
Clear edge
CLEM
CLEM gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
Slight edge
CLEM
CLEM passing ranks #58, GASO defends it at #110; the other way GASO #48 into CLEM's #48.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
CLEM
CLEM rushing ranks #75, GASO defends it at #134; the other way GASO #39 into CLEM's #29.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
CLEM
CLEM third-down conversion ranks #114, GASO defends it at #128; the other way GASO #31 into CLEM's #13.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
GASO
CLEM −41.0 per game over the last five, GASO +31.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
CLEM
Consensus has CLEM by 26.5; the model says CLEM by 14.3.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: CLEM by 14.3 · market CLEM by 26.5
Georgia Southern EaglesClemson Tigers
1444 Elo · #117
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
CLEM +11.3 pts
1646 Elo · #35
road
Home field
CLEM +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−10.9 pts vs CLEM D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
CLEM +11.6 pts
+0.6 pts vs GASO D
W · +31.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
GASO +36.0 pts
L · −41.0
−9.4
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
CLEM +18.9 pts
+9.5
GASO +26.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
CLEM +26.5 pts
CLEM -26.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸CLEM standard-down ppa (#31) against a GASO defense ranked #131 at stopping it
- ▸CLEM line yards / rush (#59) against a GASO defense ranked #133 at stopping it
- ▸CLEM pass success rate (#56) against a GASO defense ranked #125 at stopping it
- ▸CLEM stuff rate (#48) against a GASO defense ranked #112 at stopping it
- ▸GASO defense (#37 pass explosiveness allowed) against a CLEM offense ranked #97
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Georgia Southern Eagles offense vs Clemson Tigers defense
ranks of 135| GASO off | CLEM def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 49% | 57% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 71% | 63% | · |
| Plays / game | 63 | 63 | · |
| Possession / game | 29:31 | 29:07 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.29#48 | +0.19#48 | · |
| Pass success rate | 45%#34 | 36%#15 | · |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.53#78 | 1.70#118 | GASO |
| Yards / pass attempt | 7.5#56 | 6.8#50 | · |
| Completion % | 63%#56 | 61%#54 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.8%#76 | 1.4%#122 | GASO |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.18#39 | +0.03#29 | · |
| Rush success rate | 47%#34 | 39%#41 | · |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.91#89 | 0.94#59 | CLEM |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.22#20 | 2.68#27 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 17%#40 | 23%#17 | · |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 72%#68 | 83%#127 | GASO |
| Yards / rush | 4.4#68 | 3.6#24 | CLEM |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.11#64 | +0.03#33 | CLEM |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.46#17 | +0.23#48 | GASO |
| Third-down conversion | 45%#31 | 32%#13 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.09#37 | 2.68#9 | CLEM |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 13.6%#44 | 19.6%#9 | CLEM |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.00#29 | 1.31#61 | GASO |
Clemson Tigers offense vs Georgia Southern Eagles defense
ranks of 135| CLEM off | GASO def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 56% | 47% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 71% | 71% | · |
| Plays / game | 64 | 63 | · |
| Possession / game | 31:02 | 30:29 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.28#58 | +0.34#110 | CLEM |
| Pass success rate | 43%#56 | 48%#125 | CLEM |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.50#97 | 1.48#37 | GASO |
| Yards / pass attempt | 7.3#62 | 7.5#94 | CLEM |
| Completion % | 65%#36 | 64%#91 | CLEM |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.9%#44 | 2.2%#85 | CLEM |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.10#75 | +0.27#134 | CLEM |
| Rush success rate | 43%#80 | 51%#133 | CLEM |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.91#90 | 1.06#112 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.99#59 | 3.40#133 | CLEM |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 18%#48 | 16%#112 | CLEM |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 72%#71 | 75%#96 | · |
| Yards / rush | 3.9#97 | 5.7#134 | CLEM |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.18#31 | +0.25#131 | CLEM |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.21#101 | +0.33#87 | · |
| Third-down conversion | 34%#114 | 46%#128 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.80#59 | 4.21#117 | CLEM |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 15.1%#59 | 15.0%#82 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.15#50 | 1.46#41 | · |
Season
| GASO | CLEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 0-1 |
| 31.0 | Points for / game | 10.0 |
| 0.0 | Points against / game | 51.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| W | Last 5 | L |
Power ratings
| GASO | CLEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 1444 | Elo | 1646 |
| #117 of 240 | Rank | #35 of 240 |
| −0.3 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +4.3 |
| +3.7 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +10.6 |
| 1387 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | — |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| GASO | CLEM | |
|---|---|---|
| −10.8 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | +13.1 |
| 0.213 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.190 |
| 0.276 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.107 |
| 45% / 49% | Success rate (off / def) | 42% / 37% |
| 1.23 / 1.25 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.24 / 1.36 |
| 634 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 863 |
| 6% | Returning production | 41% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- CLEM +11.3 pts
- Home field
- CLEM +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- CLEM by 14.3
- Model total
- 46.7 vs 57.5
Market · 1 books
- Spread
- CLEM -26.5
- Total
- 57.5
- Moneyline
- GASO +1700 · CLEM -4500
- Best price
- GASO +1700 draftkings · CLEM -4500 draftkings
| Book | CLEM spread | Total | GASO ML | CLEM ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | -26.5 (-108) | 57.5 (-112/-108) | +1700 | -4500 |
Spreadopened CLEM -26.5 · now CLEM -26.5
Totalopened 57.5 · now 57.5
Consensus of the books we track, hourly, since we first priced the game. The arrow on the spread is from the home side: ▲ means the home side is laying more.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.