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Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
1-0 · #70 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM ET
Tiger Stadium (LA) · 91° · 42% precip · Mostly sunny
LSU Tigers
1-0 · #33 Elo
Spread —Total 53.5Moneyline LT +2321 · LSU -50882 books · best LT +2400 polymarketus · LSU -4900 polymarketus
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
LSU -5088
72%
model margin LSU by 10.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Under 53.5
51%
model total 50.9
The read
On rating alone LSU Tigers are 7.0 points better (#33 vs #70 of 240), and LSU add 3.1 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: LT rushing ranks #56, LSU defends it at #18; the other way LSU #120 into LT's #26. On the total the model sees 50.9 against 53.5.
Who has the edge
Model: LSU by 10.1
Rating
Clear edge
LSU
LSU rated 7.0 points better on Elo (#33 vs #70).
Home & rest
Clear edge
LSU
LSU gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
Even
—
LT passing ranks #99, LSU defends it at #39; the other way LSU #104 into LT's #22.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
LT
LT rushing ranks #56, LSU defends it at #18; the other way LSU #120 into LT's #26.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Even
—
LT third-down conversion ranks #55, LSU defends it at #28; the other way LSU #97 into LT's #64.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
LT
LSU +41.0 per game over the last five, LT +74.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: LSU by 10.1
Louisiana Tech BulldogsLSU Tigers
1525 Elo · #70
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
LSU +7.0 pts
1651 Elo · #33
road
Home field
LSU +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−3.6 pts vs LSU D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
LSU +1.2 pts
−2.5 pts vs LT D
W · +74.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
LT +16.5 pts
W · +41.0
−1.3
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
LSU +11.6 pts
+10.3
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸LT defense (#12 stuff rate forced) against a LSU offense ranked #132
- ▸LT defense (#13 standard-down ppa allowed) against a LSU offense ranked #126
- ▸LT defense (#10 havoc rate) against a LSU offense ranked #113
- ▸LT defense (#29 line yards / rush allowed) against a LSU offense ranked #131
- ▸LT defense (#26 rushing ppa / play allowed) against a LSU offense ranked #120
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs offense vs LSU Tigers defense
ranks of 135| LT off | LSU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 39% | 51% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 69% | 66% | · |
| Plays / game | 63 | 63 | · |
| Possession / game | 30:03 | 29:44 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.19#99 | +0.18#39 | LSU |
| Pass success rate | 37%#113 | 39%#44 | LSU |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.59#45 | 1.56#70 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 6.8#87 | 6.4#27 | LSU |
| Completion % | 63%#62 | 60%#39 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 7.0%#135 | 1.7%#110 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.14#56 | +0.01#18 | LSU |
| Rush success rate | 42%#90 | 39%#34 | LSU |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.04#37 | 0.90#39 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.95#65 | 2.59#15 | LSU |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 18%#49 | 25%#9 | LSU |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 75%#53 | 64%#19 | LSU |
| Yards / rush | 4.8#39 | 3.8#43 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.10#77 | +0.01#21 | LSU |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.23#97 | +0.22#37 | LSU |
| Third-down conversion | 41%#55 | 34%#28 | LSU |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.32#108 | 3.25#32 | LSU |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 14.7%#58 | 17.0%#41 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.31#74 | 1.62#31 | LSU |
LSU Tigers offense vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs defense
ranks of 135| LSU off | LT def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 56% | 54% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 64% | 65% | · |
| Plays / game | 60 | 66 | · |
| Possession / game | 30:16 | 29:57 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.18#104 | +0.14#22 | LT |
| Pass success rate | 41%#82 | 37%#24 | LT |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.44#108 | 1.58#84 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 6.7#94 | 6.4#30 | LT |
| Completion % | 66%#31 | 55%#9 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 3.8%#114 | 2.1%#92 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.01#120 | +0.02#26 | LT |
| Rush success rate | 37%#121 | 39%#37 | LT |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.92#87 | 1.08#118 | LSU |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.46#131 | 2.69#29 | LT |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 25%#132 | 23%#12 | LT |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 64%#114 | 68%#46 | LT |
| Yards / rush | 3.7#111 | 4.2#68 | LT |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | −0.03#126 | −0.04#13 | LT |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.23#95 | +0.26#55 | LT |
| Third-down conversion | 37%#97 | 39%#64 | LT |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.35#103 | 3.07#23 | LT |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 17.9%#113 | 19.5%#10 | LT |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.08#42 | 1.92#9 | LT |
Season
| LT | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| 80.0 | Points for / game | 51.0 |
| 6.0 | Points against / game | 10.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| W | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| LT | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1525 | Elo | 1651 |
| #70 of 240 | Rank | #33 of 240 |
| +4.7 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +2.4 |
| +4.8 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +8.4 |
| 1364 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | — |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| LT | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| −9.1 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | +20.4 |
| 0.139 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.063 |
| 0.067 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.082 |
| 40% / 38% | Success rate (off / def) | 39% / 39% |
| 1.25 / 1.34 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.22 / 1.24 |
| 543 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 932 |
| 64% | Returning production | 21% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2025 | LT 7 at LSU 23 | LSU · LT covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- LSU +7.0 pts
- Home field
- LSU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- LSU by 10.1
- Model total
- 50.9 vs 53.5
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- 53.5
- Moneyline
- LT +2321 · LSU -5088
- Best price
- LT +2400 polymarketus · LSU -4900 polymarketus
| Book | LSU spread | Total | LT ML | LSU ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | — | — | +2242 | -5276 |
| polymarketus | — | 53.5 | +2400 | -4900 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.