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Western Illinois Leathernecks
0-2 last yr · #199 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 7:15 PM ET
Camp Randall Stadium · 79° · Cloudy
Wisconsin Badgers
4-8 last yr · #104 Elo
Spread —Total 43.5Moneyline WIU +3124 · WIS -45882 books · best WIU +3233 polymarketus · WIS -3900 polymarketus
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
WIS -4588
69%
model margin WIS by 8.5
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Over 43.5
51%
model total 45.3
The read
On rating alone Wisconsin Badgers are 5.5 points better (#104 vs #199 of 240), and WIS add 3.1 for home field.
Who has the edge
Model: WIS by 8.5
Rating
Clear edge
WIS
WIS rated 5.5 points better on Elo (#104 vs #199).
Home & rest
Clear edge
WIS
WIS gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
WIS
WIS −5.6 per game over the last five, WIU −42.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: WIS by 8.5
Western Illinois LeathernecksWisconsin Badgers
1358 Elo · #199
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
WIS +5.5 pts
1456 Elo · #104
road
Home field
WIS +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−17.9 pts vs WIS D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
WIS +24.2 pts
+6.2 pts vs WIU D
L L · −42.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
WIS +18.2 pts
L W L W L · −5.6
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| WIU | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 4-8 |
| 5.0 | Points for / game | 12.8 |
| 47.0 | Points against / game | 21.6 |
| 0-0 / 0-2 | Home / road | 4-3 / 0-5 |
| 0-2 | Against the spread | 6-6 |
| 1-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 2-10 |
| L L | Last 5 | L W L W L |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| WIU | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 1358 | Elo | 1456 |
| #199 of 240 | Rank | #104 of 240 |
| −6.7 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −3.4 |
| −9.6 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +11.3 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | — |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- WIS +5.5 pts
- Home field
- WIS +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- WIS by 8.5
- Model total
- 45.3 vs 43.5
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- 43.5
- Moneyline
- WIU +3124 · WIS -4588
- Best price
- WIU +3233 polymarketus · WIS -3900 polymarketus
| Book | WIS spread | Total | WIU ML | WIS ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | — | — | +3015 | -5276 |
| polymarketus | — | 43.5 (-117/+113) | +3233 | -3900 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.