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Lindenwood Lions
0-2 last yr · #149 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM ET
Robert W. Plaster Stadium · 91° · 11 mph wind · Mostly sunny
Missouri State Bears
0-1 · #205 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline LIN +449 · MOST -9332 books · best LIN +525 polymarketus · MOST -900 polymarketus
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
LIN +449
51%
model margin LIN by 0.6
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 54.0
The read
On rating alone Lindenwood Lions are 3.6 points better (#149 vs #205 of 240), and MOST add 3.1 for home field.
Who has the edge
Model: LIN by 0.6
Rating
Clear edge
LIN
LIN rated 3.6 points better on Elo (#205 vs #149).
Home & rest
Clear edge
MOST
MOST gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
LIN
MOST −50.0 per game over the last five, LIN −22.5.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: LIN by 0.6
Lindenwood LionsMissouri State Bears
1414 Elo · #149
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
LIN +3.6 pts
1349 Elo · #205
road
Home field
MOST +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−1.6 pts vs MOST D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
MOST +0.2 pts
−1.4 pts vs LIN D
L L · −22.5
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
LIN +13.8 pts
L · −50.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| LIN | MOST | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 0-1 |
| 6.5 | Points for / game | 0.0 |
| 29.0 | Points against / game | 50.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-2 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 1-1 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 0-2 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| L L | Last 5 | L |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| LIN | MOST | |
|---|---|---|
| 1414 | Elo | 1349 |
| #149 of 240 | Rank | #205 of 240 |
| −5.9 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −2.5 |
| −1.1 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | −4.3 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1804 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- LIN +3.6 pts
- Home field
- MOST +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- LIN by 0.6
- Model total
- 54.0 vs —
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- LIN +449 · MOST -933
- Best price
- LIN +525 polymarketus · MOST -900 polymarketus
| Book | MOST spread | Total | LIN ML | MOST ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | — | — | +373 | -967 |
| polymarketus | — | — | +525 | -900 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.