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Georgia State Panthers
1-0 · #227 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM ET
Walens Family Field at Fifth Third Stadium · 85° · 42% precip · Mostly sunny
Kennesaw State Owls
1-0 · #74 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline GAST +240 · KENN -4822 books · best GAST +240 kalshi · KENN -458 kalshi
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
KENN -482
83%
model margin KENN by 16.2
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 56.9
The read
On rating alone Kennesaw State Owls are 13.0 points better (#74 vs #227 of 240), and KENN add 3.1 for home field; KENN carry a rest edge worth 0.2. The clearest mismatch is the passing game: KENN passing ranks #44, GAST defends it at #129; the other way GAST #71 into KENN's #47.
Who has the edge
Model: KENN by 16.2
Rating
Clear edge
KENN
KENN rated 13.0 points better on Elo (#74 vs #227).
Home & rest
Clear edge
KENN
KENN gets 3.1 points for home field and KENN 0.2 for rest.
Passing game
Clear edge
KENN
KENN passing ranks #44, GAST defends it at #129; the other way GAST #71 into KENN's #47.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
KENN
KENN rushing ranks #69, GAST defends it at #111; the other way GAST #94 into KENN's #99.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
KENN
KENN third-down conversion ranks #67, GAST defends it at #132; the other way GAST #83 into KENN's #61.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Even
—
KENN +47.0 per game over the last five, GAST +49.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: KENN by 16.2
Georgia State PanthersKennesaw State Owls
1275 Elo · #227
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
KENN +13.0 pts
1509 Elo · #74
road
Home field
KENN +3.1 pts
home
8d
Rest
KENN +0.2 pts
9d
−3.3 pts vs KENN D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
KENN +6.5 pts
+3.2 pts vs GAST D
W · +49.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
GAST +1.0 pts
W · +47.0
−24.5
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
KENN +19.1 pts
−5.4
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸KENN power success (#17) against a GAST defense ranked #111 at stopping it
- ▸KENN yards / pass attempt (#34) against a GAST defense ranked #126 at stopping it
- ▸KENN passing-down ppa (#38) against a GAST defense ranked #130 at stopping it
- ▸KENN pass explosiveness (#19) against a GAST defense ranked #108 at stopping it
- ▸KENN passing ppa / play (#44) against a GAST defense ranked #129 at stopping it
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Georgia State Panthers offense vs Kennesaw State Owls defense
ranks of 135| GAST off | KENN def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 56% | 46% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 67% | 70% | · |
| Plays / game | 63 | 65 | · |
| Possession / game | 30:11 | 31:56 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.24#71 | +0.19#47 | · |
| Pass success rate | 40%#86 | 41%#64 | · |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.57#58 | 1.45#20 | KENN |
| Yards / pass attempt | 6.4#109 | 7.3#79 | KENN |
| Completion % | 61%#85 | 61%#59 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 0.6%#3 | 2.6%#54 | GAST |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.06#94 | +0.16#99 | · |
| Rush success rate | 43%#72 | 44%#87 | · |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.87#112 | 1.03#103 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.89#75 | 2.97#81 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 20%#94 | 19%#67 | KENN |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 63%#118 | 69%#52 | KENN |
| Yards / rush | 4.1#91 | 4.7#95 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.05#104 | +0.14#95 | · |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.32#60 | +0.19#25 | KENN |
| Third-down conversion | 39%#83 | 39%#61 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.39#100 | 3.57#60 | KENN |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 16.0%#81 | 16.8%#45 | KENN |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.42#88 | 1.07#97 | · |
Kennesaw State Owls offense vs Georgia State Panthers defense
ranks of 135| KENN off | GAST def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 45% | 42% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 67% | 72% | · |
| Plays / game | 67 | 64 | · |
| Possession / game | 28:07 | 29:49 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.33#44 | +0.43#129 | KENN |
| Pass success rate | 42%#65 | 47%#122 | KENN |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.71#19 | 1.65#108 | KENN |
| Yards / pass attempt | 8.0#34 | 8.5#126 | KENN |
| Completion % | 61%#76 | 64%#105 | KENN |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.1%#57 | 3.2%#32 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.11#69 | +0.18#111 | KENN |
| Rush success rate | 42%#89 | 45%#103 | · |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.03#46 | 0.97#75 | KENN |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.84#84 | 3.17#113 | KENN |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 20%#98 | 14%#126 | KENN |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 80%#17 | 77%#111 | KENN |
| Yards / rush | 4.2#87 | 5.1#125 | KENN |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.06#97 | +0.19#120 | · |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.39#38 | +0.48#130 | KENN |
| Third-down conversion | 40%#67 | 47%#132 | KENN |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.95#125 | 4.45#129 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 15.2%#61 | 12.7%#121 | KENN |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.29#71 | 0.50#133 | KENN |
Season
| GAST | KENN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| 59.0 | Points for / game | 47.0 |
| 10.0 | Points against / game | 0.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| W | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| GAST | KENN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1275 | Elo | 1509 |
| #227 of 240 | Rank | #74 of 240 |
| +0.3 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +2.7 |
| −0.5 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +3.6 |
| 1415 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1500 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| GAST | KENN | |
|---|---|---|
| −29.3 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | −12.9 |
| 0.142 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.170 |
| 0.273 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.157 |
| 41% / 46% | Success rate (off / def) | 41% / 42% |
| 1.25 / 1.27 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.35 / 1.22 |
| 574 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 503 |
| 47% | Returning production | 6% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- KENN +13.0 pts
- Home field
- KENN +3.1 pts
- Rest
- KENN +0.2 pts
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- KENN by 16.2
- Model total
- 56.9 vs —
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- GAST +240 · KENN -482
- Best price
- GAST +240 kalshi · KENN -458 kalshi
| Book | KENN spread | Total | GAST ML | KENN ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | — | — | +240 | -458 |
| polymarketus | — | — | +239 | -506 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.