← College Football slate
West Georgia Wolves
0-1 · #136 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM ET
Centennial Bank Stadium · 91° · Sunny
Arkansas State Red Wolves
0-1 · #186 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline WES +190 · ARST -14332 books · best WES +213 polymarketus · ARST -1429 kalshi
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
WES +190
50%
model margin WES by 0.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 55.3
The read
On rating alone West Georgia Wolves are 2.8 points better (#136 vs #186 of 240), and ARST add 3.1 for home field; WES carry a rest edge worth 0.3.
Who has the edge
Model: WES by 0.1
Rating
Slight edge
WES
WES rated 2.8 points better on Elo (#186 vs #136).
Home & rest
Clear edge
ARST
ARST gets 3.1 points for home field and WES 0.3 for rest.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
ARST
ARST −18.0 per game over the last five, WES −47.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: WES by 0.1
West Georgia WolvesArkansas State Red Wolves
1429 Elo · #136
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
WES +2.8 pts
1378 Elo · #186
road
Home field
ARST +3.1 pts
home
9d
Rest
WES +0.3 pts
7d
−4.0 pts vs ARST D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
ARST +6.3 pts
+2.3 pts vs WES D
L · −47.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
ARST +14.5 pts
L · −18.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| WES | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 0-1 |
| 0.0 | Points for / game | 24.0 |
| 47.0 | Points against / game | 42.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| L | Last 5 | L |
Power ratings
| WES | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| 1429 | Elo | 1378 |
| #136 of 240 | Rank | #186 of 240 |
| −4.7 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −0.7 |
| −3.0 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | −0.8 |
| 1438 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1631 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- WES +2.8 pts
- Home field
- ARST +3.1 pts
- Rest
- WES +0.3 pts
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- WES by 0.1
- Model total
- 55.3 vs —
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- WES +190 · ARST -1433
- Best price
- WES +213 polymarketus · ARST -1429 kalshi
| Book | ARST spread | Total | WES ML | ARST ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | — | — | +166 | -1429 |
| polymarketus | — | — | +213 | -1438 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.