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Tulsa Golden Hurricane
1-0 · #187 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM ET
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium · 91° · Sunny
Sam Houston Bearkats
0-1 · #240 Elo
Spread TLSA -10.5Total 53.5Moneyline TLSA -487 · SHSU +3652 books · best TLSA -425 draftkings · SHSU +400 fanduel
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
TLSA -487
75%
model margin TLSA by 11.7
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean
TLSA -10.5
50%
1.2 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Coin flip
Over 53.5
50%
model total 53.7
The read
On rating alone Tulsa Golden Hurricane are 14.7 points better (#187 vs #240 of 240), and SHSU add 3.1 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the passing game: TLSA passing ranks #113, SHSU defends it at #115; the other way SHSU #132 into TLSA's #84. The model lands on TLSA by 11.7 against a market TLSA by 10.5, so the spread lean is TLSA by 1.2 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%.
Who has the edge
Model: TLSA by 11.7 · market TLSA by 10.5
Rating
Clear edge
TLSA
TLSA rated 14.7 points better on Elo (#240 vs #187).
Home & rest
Clear edge
SHSU
SHSU gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
Slight edge
TLSA
TLSA passing ranks #113, SHSU defends it at #115; the other way SHSU #132 into TLSA's #84.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
TLSA
TLSA rushing ranks #100, SHSU defends it at #93; the other way SHSU #93 into TLSA's #47.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
TLSA
TLSA third-down conversion ranks #88, SHSU defends it at #119; the other way SHSU #135 into TLSA's #109.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
TLSA
SHSU −3.0 per game over the last five, TLSA +14.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
TLSA
Consensus has TLSA by 10.5; the model says TLSA by 11.7.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: TLSA by 11.7 · market TLSA by 10.5
Tulsa Golden HurricaneSam Houston Bearkats
1376 Elo · #187
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
TLSA +14.7 pts
1111 Elo · #240
road
Home field
SHSU +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
+3.7 pts vs SHSU D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
TLSA +10.6 pts
−6.9 pts vs TLSA D
W · +14.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
TLSA +8.5 pts
L · −3.0
TLSA -10.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
TLSA +10.5 pts
SHSU +10.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸SHSU defense (#45 power success allowed) against a TLSA offense ranked #128
- ▸TLSA defense (#51 pass explosiveness allowed) against a SHSU offense ranked #129
- ▸TLSA defense (#65 passing-down ppa allowed) against a SHSU offense ranked #134
- ▸SHSU defense (#40 takeaways / game) against a TLSA offense ranked #107
- ▸TLSA defense (#36 power success allowed) against a SHSU offense ranked #103
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane offense vs Sam Houston Bearkats defense
ranks of 135| TLSA off | SHSU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 47% | 47% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 68% | 73% | · |
| Plays / game | 75 | 66 | · |
| Possession / game | 28:34 | 31:30 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.15#113 | +0.36#115 | · |
| Pass success rate | 38%#104 | 50%#133 | TLSA |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.47#103 | 1.51#50 | SHSU |
| Yards / pass attempt | 6.5#103 | 8.9#132 | TLSA |
| Completion % | 59%#101 | 70%#135 | TLSA |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.7%#33 | 2.7%#52 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.05#100 | +0.15#93 | · |
| Rush success rate | 42%#87 | 47%#114 | TLSA |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.03#47 | 0.96#71 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.87#78 | 2.89#70 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 23%#124 | 17%#96 | SHSU |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 60%#128 | 68%#45 | SHSU |
| Yards / rush | 4.4#70 | 5.4#132 | TLSA |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.04#106 | +0.23#128 | · |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.26#86 | +0.17#21 | SHSU |
| Third-down conversion | 38%#88 | 44%#119 | TLSA |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.34#105 | 3.85#86 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 17.0%#103 | 14.4%#100 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.58#107 | 1.50#40 | SHSU |
Sam Houston Bearkats offense vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane defense
ranks of 135| SHSU off | TLSA def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 55% | 43% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 65% | 71% | · |
| Plays / game | 57 | 72 | · |
| Possession / game | 28:30 | 31:26 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.01#132 | +0.28#84 | TLSA |
| Pass success rate | 35%#126 | 44%#100 | · |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.36#129 | 1.52#51 | TLSA |
| Yards / pass attempt | 5.7#131 | 7.4#88 | TLSA |
| Completion % | 55%#127 | 64%#90 | TLSA |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.1%#53 | 2.9%#44 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.07#93 | +0.06#47 | TLSA |
| Rush success rate | 40%#103 | 42%#65 | TLSA |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.09#20 | 0.94#57 | SHSU |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.67#116 | 2.92#75 | TLSA |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 25%#130 | 18%#76 | TLSA |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 66%#103 | 67%#36 | TLSA |
| Yards / rush | 4.3#75 | 4.3#73 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.01#113 | +0.09#71 | TLSA |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.01#134 | +0.28#65 | TLSA |
| Third-down conversion | 22%#135 | 43%#109 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.79#128 | 3.78#78 | TLSA |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 20.0%#131 | 12.7%#122 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.33#82 | 0.92#113 | SHSU |
Season
| TLSA | SHSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 0-1 |
| 24.0 | Points for / game | 21.0 |
| 10.0 | Points against / game | 24.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| W | Last 5 | L |
Power ratings
| TLSA | SHSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1376 | Elo | 1111 |
| #187 of 240 | Rank | #240 of 240 |
| −1.7 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −7.0 |
| −0.0 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | −5.3 |
| 1283 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1441 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| TLSA | SHSU | |
|---|---|---|
| — | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | −26.0 |
| 0.113 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.013 |
| 0.148 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.216 |
| 40% / 43% | Success rate (off / def) | 37% / 48% |
| 1.26 / 1.20 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.24 / 1.24 |
| — | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 554 |
| — | Returning production | 58% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- TLSA +14.7 pts
- Home field
- SHSU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- TLSA by 11.7
- Model total
- 53.7 vs 53.5
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- TLSA -10.5
- Total
- 53.5
- Moneyline
- TLSA -487 · SHSU +365
- Best price
- TLSA -425 draftkings · SHSU +400 fanduel
| Book | SHSU spread | Total | TLSA ML | SHSU ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | +10.5 (-115) | 53.5 (-112/-108) | -425 | +330 |
| fanduel | — | — | -550 | +400 |
Spreadopened TLSA -10.5 · now TLSA -10.5
Totalopened 53.5 · now 53.5
Consensus of the books we track, hourly, since we first priced the game. The arrow on the spread is from the home side: ▲ means the home side is laying more.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.