← College Football slate
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
0-0 last yr · #90 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM ET
Canvas Stadium · 85° · Mostly sunny
Colorado State Rams
1-0 · #213 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline SUU +109 · CSU -609
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
SUU +109
61%
model margin SUU by 4.6
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 55.8
The read
On rating alone Southern Utah Thunderbirds are 7.6 points better (#90 vs #213 of 240), and CSU add 3.1 for home field.
Who has the edge
Model: SUU by 4.6
Rating
Clear edge
SUU
SUU rated 7.6 points better on Elo (#213 vs #90).
Home & rest
Clear edge
CSU
CSU gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
not priced
—
Not enough games.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: SUU by 4.6
Southern Utah ThunderbirdsColorado State Rams
1467 Elo · #90
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
SUU +7.6 pts
1330 Elo · #213
road
Home field
CSU +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−1.3 pts vs CSU D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
CSU +1.4 pts
+0.1 pts vs SUU D
—
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
not priced
W · +22.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| SUU | CSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| — | Points for / game | 35.0 |
| — | Points against / game | 13.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 0-0 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| — | Last 5 | W |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| SUU | CSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1467 | Elo | 1330 |
| #90 of 240 | Rank | #213 of 240 |
| −2.7 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −2.2 |
| −2.3 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | −1.4 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1336 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- SUU +7.6 pts
- Home field
- CSU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- SUU by 4.6
- Model total
- 55.8 vs —
Market · 1 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- SUU +109 · CSU -609
| Book | CSU spread | Total | SUU ML | CSU ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | — | — | — | -609 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.