← College Football slate
Western Carolina Catamounts
0-1 last yr · #141 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM ET
Nippert Stadium · 80° · Sunny
Cincinnati Bearcats
1-0 · #55 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline WCU +488 · CIN -10212 books · best WCU +488 polymarketus · CIN -967 kalshi
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
CIN -1021
75%
model margin CIN by 11.8
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 56.8
The read
On rating alone Cincinnati Bearcats are 8.7 points better (#55 vs #141 of 240), and CIN add 3.1 for home field.
Who has the edge
Model: CIN by 11.8
Rating
Clear edge
CIN
CIN rated 8.7 points better on Elo (#55 vs #141).
Home & rest
Clear edge
CIN
CIN gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
CIN
CIN +19.0 per game over the last five, WCU −32.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: CIN by 11.8
Western Carolina CatamountsCincinnati Bearcats
1422 Elo · #141
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
CIN +8.7 pts
1579 Elo · #55
road
Home field
CIN +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−7.1 pts vs CIN D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
CIN +13.9 pts
+6.8 pts vs WCU D
L · −32.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
CIN +25.5 pts
W · +19.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| WCU | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 1-0 |
| 10.0 | Points for / game | 34.0 |
| 42.0 | Points against / game | 15.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| L | Last 5 | W |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| WCU | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1422 | Elo | 1579 |
| #141 of 240 | Rank | #55 of 240 |
| −2.4 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +2.9 |
| −4.0 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +4.6 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1386 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- CIN +8.7 pts
- Home field
- CIN +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- CIN by 11.8
- Model total
- 56.8 vs —
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- WCU +488 · CIN -1021
- Best price
- WCU +488 polymarketus · CIN -967 kalshi
| Book | CIN spread | Total | WCU ML | CIN ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | — | — | — | -967 |
| polymarketus | — | — | +488 | -1076 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.