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Tennessee Volunteers
1-0 · #19 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM ET
Bobby Dodd Stadium · 85° · Mostly sunny
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
0-1 · #45 Elo
Spread TENN -12 (opened TENN -10.5)Total 55.5Moneyline TENN -502 · GT +3752 books · best TENN -455 draftkings · GT +400 fanduel
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
TENN -502
59%
model margin TENN by 3.7
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
GT +12
53%
8.3 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Over 55.5
51%
model total 57.7
The read
On rating alone Tennessee Volunteers are 7.1 points better (#19 vs #45 of 240), and GT add 3.1 for home field; GT carry a rest edge worth 0.3. The model lands on TENN by 3.7 against a market TENN by 12, so the spread lean is GT by 8.3 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%. On the total the model sees 57.7 against 55.5.
Who has the edge
Model: TENN by 3.7 · market TENN by 12
Rating
Clear edge
TENN
TENN rated 7.1 points better on Elo (#45 vs #19).
Home & rest
Clear edge
GT
GT gets 3.1 points for home field and GT 0.3 for rest.
Passing game
Even
—
TENN passing ranks #19, GT defends it at #87; the other way GT #15 into TENN's #59.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Even
—
TENN rushing ranks #9, GT defends it at #70; the other way GT #29 into TENN's #78.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Even
—
TENN third-down conversion ranks #10, GT defends it at #79; the other way GT #22 into TENN's #89.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
TENN
GT −1.0 per game over the last five, TENN +47.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
TENN
Consensus has TENN by 12; the model says TENN by 3.7.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: TENN by 3.7 · market TENN by 12
Tennessee VolunteersGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets
1731 Elo · #19
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
TENN +7.1 pts
1603 Elo · #45
road
Home field
GT +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
GT +0.3 pts
9d
+5.2 pts vs GT D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
TENN +9.6 pts
−4.4 pts vs TENN D
W · +47.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
TENN +24.0 pts
L · −1.0
+15.0
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
TENN +5.7 pts
+9.3
TENN -12
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
TENN +12.0 pts
GT +12
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸GT rush success rate (#7) against a TENN defense ranked #122 at stopping it
- ▸GT completion % (#6) against a TENN defense ranked #118 at stopping it
- ▸TENN pass success rate (#9) against a GT defense ranked #107 at stopping it
- ▸TENN defense (#14 rush explosiveness allowed) against a GT offense ranked #109
- ▸TENN standard-down ppa (#3) against a GT defense ranked #97 at stopping it
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Tennessee Volunteers offense vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets defense
ranks of 135| TENN off | GT def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 48% | 49% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 74% | 70% | · |
| Plays / game | 65 | 61 | · |
| Possession / game | 27:22 | 30:57 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.41#19 | +0.29#87 | TENN |
| Pass success rate | 50%#9 | 44%#107 | TENN |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.57#56 | 1.50#46 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 8.7#13 | 7.5#92 | TENN |
| Completion % | 67%#19 | 62%#73 | TENN |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.3%#64 | 1.7%#108 | TENN |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.26#9 | +0.11#70 | TENN |
| Rush success rate | 52%#3 | 43%#82 | TENN |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.96#72 | 0.98#82 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.10#40 | 2.99#89 | TENN |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 14%#11 | 19%#69 | TENN |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 85%#2 | 66%#27 | · |
| Yards / rush | 4.7#44 | 4.6#91 | TENN |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.28#3 | +0.15#97 | TENN |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.47#16 | +0.31#74 | TENN |
| Third-down conversion | 50%#10 | 40%#79 | TENN |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.69#9 | 3.56#58 | TENN |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 12.4%#19 | 13.7%#107 | TENN |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.15#55 | 0.69#130 | TENN |
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets offense vs Tennessee Volunteers defense
ranks of 135| GT off | TENN def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 46% | 49% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 75% | 69% | · |
| Plays / game | 65 | 61 | · |
| Possession / game | 29:03 | 32:38 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.42#15 | +0.22#59 | GT |
| Pass success rate | 49%#12 | 41%#67 | GT |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.49#98 | 1.53#53 | TENN |
| Yards / pass attempt | 8.7#15 | 7.2#70 | GT |
| Completion % | 70%#6 | 66%#118 | GT |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.0%#10 | 2.3%#79 | GT |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.19#29 | +0.12#78 | GT |
| Rush success rate | 51%#7 | 48%#122 | GT |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.88#109 | 0.85#14 | TENN |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.38#8 | 2.89#71 | GT |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 16%#33 | 20%#47 | · |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 71%#74 | 82%#125 | GT |
| Yards / rush | 5.6#9 | 4.1#56 | GT |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.22#24 | +0.12#84 | GT |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.44#23 | +0.26#59 | GT |
| Third-down conversion | 46%#22 | 41%#89 | GT |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.61#77 | 4.09#109 | GT |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 11.8%#10 | 18.4%#19 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.15#51 | 1.54#37 | · |
Season
| TENN | GT | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 0-1 |
| 56.0 | Points for / game | 13.0 |
| 9.0 | Points against / game | 14.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 0-1 / 0-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| W | Last 5 | L |
Power ratings
| TENN | GT | |
|---|---|---|
| 1731 | Elo | 1603 |
| #19 of 240 | Rank | #45 of 240 |
| +11.9 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +1.8 |
| +6.3 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +6.8 |
| 1452 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1388 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| TENN | GT | |
|---|---|---|
| +17.3 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | +5.9 |
| 0.332 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.272 |
| 0.164 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.195 |
| 51% / 44% | Success rate (off / def) | 49% / 44% |
| 1.27 / 1.16 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.16 / 1.25 |
| 886 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 752 |
| 35% | Returning production | 13% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- TENN +7.1 pts
- Home field
- GT +3.1 pts
- Rest
- GT +0.3 pts
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- TENN by 3.7
- Model total
- 57.7 vs 55.5
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- TENN -12 · opened TENN -10.5
- Total
- 55.5 · opened 56.5
- Moneyline
- TENN -502 · GT +375
- Best price
- TENN -455 draftkings · GT +400 fanduel
| Book | GT spread | Total | TENN ML | GT ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | +10.5 (-110) | 56.5 (-108/-112) | -455 | +350 |
| fanduel | +13.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-105/-115) | -550 | +400 |
Spreadopened TENN -10.5 · now TENN -12 ▼ 1.5
Totalopened 56.5 · now 55.5 ▼ 1.0
Consensus of the books we track, hourly, since we first priced the game. The arrow on the spread is from the home side: ▲ means the home side is laying more.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.