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Monmouth Hawks
0-1 last yr · #124 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 6:30 PM ET
Waldo Stadium · 80° · 13 mph wind · Mostly sunny
Western Michigan Broncos
0-1 · #77 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline MONM +383 · WMU -17722 books · best MONM +567 polymarketus · WMU -788 kalshi
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
WMU -1772
65%
model margin WMU by 6.8
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 51.1
The read
On rating alone Western Michigan Broncos are 3.7 points better (#77 vs #124 of 240), and WMU add 3.1 for home field.
Who has the edge
Model: WMU by 6.8
Rating
Clear edge
WMU
WMU rated 3.7 points better on Elo (#77 vs #124).
Home & rest
Clear edge
WMU
WMU gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Slight edge
WMU
WMU −1.0 per game over the last five, MONM −7.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: WMU by 6.8
Monmouth HawksWestern Michigan Broncos
1441 Elo · #124
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
WMU +3.7 pts
1508 Elo · #77
road
Home field
WMU +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−9.6 pts vs WMU D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
WMU +13.6 pts
+4.1 pts vs MONM D
L · −7.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
WMU +3.0 pts
L · −1.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| MONM | WMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 0-1 |
| 35.0 | Points for / game | 12.0 |
| 42.0 | Points against / game | 13.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| L | Last 5 | L |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| MONM | WMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1441 | Elo | 1508 |
| #124 of 240 | Rank | #77 of 240 |
| +1.1 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −0.4 |
| −4.5 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +10.6 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1683 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- WMU +3.7 pts
- Home field
- WMU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- -0.4 pts on the total
- Model margin
- WMU by 6.8
- Model total
- 51.1 vs —
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- MONM +383 · WMU -1772
- Best price
- MONM +567 polymarketus · WMU -788 kalshi
| Book | WMU spread | Total | MONM ML | WMU ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | — | — | +198 | -788 |
| polymarketus | — | — | +567 | -2757 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.