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Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
0-2 last yr · #165 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 6:00 PM ET
Williams Stadium (VA) · 81° · Intermittent clouds
Liberty Flames
0-1 · #192 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline GWEB +375 · LIB -11482 books · best GWEB +376 polymarketus · LIB -967 kalshi
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
LIB -1148
53%
model margin LIB by 1.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 59.4
The read
On rating alone Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs are 1.9 points better (#165 vs #192 of 240), and LIB add 3.1 for home field.
Who has the edge
Model: LIB by 1.1
Rating
Slight edge
GWEB
GWEB rated 1.9 points better on Elo (#192 vs #165).
Home & rest
Clear edge
LIB
LIB gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
LIB
LIB −7.0 per game over the last five, GWEB −32.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: LIB by 1.1
Gardner-Webb Runnin' BulldogsLiberty Flames
1398 Elo · #165
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
GWEB +1.9 pts
1364 Elo · #192
road
Home field
LIB +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−2.7 pts vs LIB D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
LIB +7.8 pts
+5.1 pts vs GWEB D
L L · −32.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
LIB +12.5 pts
L · −7.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| GWEB | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 0-1 |
| 23.5 | Points for / game | 13.0 |
| 55.5 | Points against / game | 20.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-2 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 1-1 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 2-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| L L | Last 5 | L |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| GWEB | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| 1398 | Elo | 1364 |
| #165 of 240 | Rank | #192 of 240 |
| −1.4 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −0.7 |
| −5.8 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +1.4 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1700 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- GWEB +1.9 pts
- Home field
- LIB +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- LIB by 1.1
- Model total
- 59.4 vs —
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- GWEB +375 · LIB -1148
- Best price
- GWEB +376 polymarketus · LIB -967 kalshi
| Book | LIB spread | Total | GWEB ML | LIB ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | — | — | +373 | -967 |
| polymarketus | — | — | +376 | -1329 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.