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Buffalo Bulls
1-0 · #155 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 6:00 PM ET
Pitbull Stadium · 88° · 11 mph wind
Florida International Panthers
0-1 · #195 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline BUFF +235 · FIU -295
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
BUFF +235
50%
model margin BUFF by 0.2
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 51.3
The read
On rating alone Buffalo Bulls are 2.9 points better (#155 vs #195 of 240), and FIU add 3.1 for home field; BUFF carry a rest edge worth 0.3. The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: FIU rushing ranks #51, BUFF defends it at #38; the other way BUFF #127 into FIU's #85.
Who has the edge
Model: BUFF by 0.2
Rating
Slight edge
BUFF
BUFF rated 2.9 points better on Elo (#195 vs #155).
Home & rest
Clear edge
FIU
FIU gets 3.1 points for home field and BUFF 0.3 for rest.
Passing game
Even
—
BUFF passing ranks #102, FIU defends it at #78; the other way FIU #88 into BUFF's #63.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
FIU
FIU rushing ranks #51, BUFF defends it at #38; the other way BUFF #127 into FIU's #85.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Even
—
BUFF third-down conversion ranks #103, FIU defends it at #69; the other way FIU #104 into BUFF's #27.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
BUFF
FIU −10.0 per game over the last five, BUFF +4.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: BUFF by 0.2
Buffalo BullsFlorida International Panthers
1411 Elo · #155
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
BUFF +2.9 pts
1360 Elo · #195
road
Home field
FIU +3.1 pts
home
9d
Rest
BUFF +0.3 pts
7d
−4.5 pts vs FIU D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
FIU +3.4 pts
−1.2 pts vs BUFF D
W · +4.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
BUFF +7.0 pts
L · −10.0
−7.5
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
BUFF +3.0 pts
−10.5
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸FIU defense (#30 takeaways / game) against a BUFF offense ranked #125
- ▸BUFF defense (#27 rush success rate allowed) against a FIU offense ranked #108
- ▸BUFF defense (#13 completion % allowed) against a FIU offense ranked #90
- ▸BUFF defense (#27 third-down conversion allowed) against a FIU offense ranked #104
- ▸BUFF defense (#18 passing-down ppa allowed) against a FIU offense ranked #94
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Buffalo Bulls offense vs Florida International Panthers defense
ranks of 135| BUFF off | FIU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 53% | 51% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 66% | 69% | · |
| Plays / game | 66 | 62 | · |
| Possession / game | 28:04 | 28:23 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.19#102 | +0.26#78 | · |
| Pass success rate | 39%#103 | 41%#62 | FIU |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.48#100 | 1.61#98 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 6.7#96 | 7.1#69 | FIU |
| Completion % | 57%#117 | 61%#52 | FIU |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.7%#32 | 2.8%#46 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | −0.03#127 | +0.12#85 | FIU |
| Rush success rate | 39%#107 | 46%#108 | · |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.88#108 | 0.94#55 | FIU |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.68#114 | 3.21#118 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 19%#67 | 16%#114 | BUFF |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 69%#92 | 75%#94 | · |
| Yards / rush | 3.9#100 | 4.7#101 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | −0.03#127 | +0.11#76 | FIU |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.28#75 | +0.29#66 | · |
| Third-down conversion | 36%#103 | 40%#69 | FIU |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.50#91 | 3.65#67 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 16.1%#87 | 16.4%#53 | FIU |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.83#125 | 1.62#30 | FIU |
Florida International Panthers offense vs Buffalo Bulls defense
ranks of 135| FIU off | BUFF def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 49% | 43% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 67% | 68% | · |
| Plays / game | 62 | 67 | · |
| Possession / game | 31:37 | 31:56 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.21#88 | +0.23#63 | · |
| Pass success rate | 43%#54 | 40%#47 | · |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.39#128 | 1.61#97 | BUFF |
| Yards / pass attempt | 6.5#104 | 6.5#35 | BUFF |
| Completion % | 60%#90 | 56%#13 | BUFF |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.8%#77 | 4.1%#9 | BUFF |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.15#51 | +0.05#38 | · |
| Rush success rate | 39%#108 | 39%#27 | BUFF |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.19#4 | 0.89#33 | FIU |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.84#82 | 2.96#78 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 22%#120 | 17%#93 | BUFF |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 74%#55 | 66%#30 | · |
| Yards / rush | 4.9#31 | 3.8#45 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.12#61 | +0.09#70 | · |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.23#94 | +0.17#18 | BUFF |
| Third-down conversion | 36%#104 | 34%#27 | BUFF |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.12#35 | 3.07#22 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 16.9%#102 | 15.3%#74 | BUFF |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.62#109 | 1.25#67 | BUFF |
Season
| BUFF | FIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 0-1 |
| 21.0 | Points for / game | 9.0 |
| 17.0 | Points against / game | 19.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| W | Last 5 | L |
Power ratings
| BUFF | FIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1411 | Elo | 1360 |
| #155 of 240 | Rank | #195 of 240 |
| −3.6 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −0.5 |
| +0.7 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +1.0 |
| 1445 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1662 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| BUFF | FIU | |
|---|---|---|
| −12.7 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | −14.5 |
| 0.074 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.156 |
| 0.118 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.165 |
| 39% / 39% | Success rate (off / def) | 41% / 43% |
| 1.20 / 1.23 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.31 / 1.27 |
| 549 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 608 |
| -1% | Returning production | 32% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- BUFF +2.9 pts
- Home field
- FIU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- BUFF +0.3 pts
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- BUFF by 0.2
- Model total
- 51.3 vs —
Market · 1 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- BUFF +235 · FIU -295
- Best price
- BUFF +235 fanduel · FIU -295 fanduel
| Book | FIU spread | Total | BUFF ML | FIU ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| fanduel | — | — | +235 | -295 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.