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Campbell Fighting Camels
0-2 last yr · #159 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 5:30 PM ET
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · 88° · 56% precip · Intermittent clouds
Florida Gators
1-0 · #53 Elo
Spread —Total 59.5Moneyline CAM +1958 · FLA -42542 books · best CAM +3015 kalshi · FLA -3233 polymarketus
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
FLA -4254
78%
model margin FLA by 13.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 59.5
51%
model total 56.4
The read
On rating alone Florida Gators are 10.0 points better (#53 vs #159 of 240), and FLA add 3.1 for home field. On the total the model sees 56.4 against 59.5, with weather taking 1.5 off.
Who has the edge
Model: FLA by 13.1
Rating
Clear edge
FLA
FLA rated 10.0 points better on Elo (#53 vs #159).
Home & rest
Clear edge
FLA
FLA gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
FLA
FLA +45.0 per game over the last five, CAM −49.5.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: FLA by 13.1
Campbell Fighting CamelsFlorida Gators
1404 Elo · #159
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
FLA +10.0 pts
1584 Elo · #53
road
Home field
FLA +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−13.3 pts vs FLA D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
FLA +27.6 pts
+14.2 pts vs CAM D
L L · −49.5
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
FLA +47.3 pts
W · +45.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| CAM | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 1-0 |
| 6.5 | Points for / game | 66.0 |
| 56.0 | Points against / game | 21.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-2 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 0-2 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 2-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| L L | Last 5 | W |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| CAM | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1404 | Elo | 1584 |
| #159 of 240 | Rank | #53 of 240 |
| −5.5 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +7.5 |
| −6.7 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +7.9 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1374 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- FLA +10.0 pts
- Home field
- FLA +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- -1.5 pts on the total
- Model margin
- FLA by 13.1
- Model total
- 56.4 vs 59.5
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- 59.5
- Moneyline
- CAM +1958 · FLA -4254
- Best price
- CAM +3015 kalshi · FLA -3233 polymarketus
| Book | FLA spread | Total | CAM ML | FLA ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | — | — | +3015 | -5276 |
| polymarketus | — | 59.5 (+144/-156) | +900 | -3233 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.