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Alabama State Hornets
0-1 last yr · #99 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 4:00 PM ET
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · 89° · Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms
Troy Trojans
1-0 · #116 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline ALST +258 · TROY -5502 books · best ALST +335 polymarketus · TROY -441 polymarketus
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
TROY -550
55%
model margin TROY by 2.2
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 52.2
The read
On rating alone Alabama State Hornets are 0.9 points better (#99 vs #116 of 240), and TROY add 3.1 for home field.
Who has the edge
Model: TROY by 2.2
Rating
Even
—
ALST rated 0.9 points better on Elo (#116 vs #99).
Home & rest
Clear edge
TROY
TROY gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
TROY
TROY +3.0 per game over the last five, ALST −10.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: TROY by 2.2
Alabama State HornetsTroy Trojans
1461 Elo · #99
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
ALST +0.9 pts
1445 Elo · #116
road
Home field
TROY +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−2.5 pts vs TROY D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
TROY +0.2 pts
−2.3 pts vs ALST D
L · −10.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
TROY +6.5 pts
W · +3.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| ALST | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 1-0 |
| 42.0 | Points for / game | 24.0 |
| 52.0 | Points against / game | 21.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| L | Last 5 | W |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| ALST | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| 1461 | Elo | 1445 |
| #99 of 240 | Rank | #116 of 240 |
| +1.2 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −5.0 |
| −2.7 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +3.7 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1116 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- ALST +0.9 pts
- Home field
- TROY +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- TROY by 2.2
- Model total
- 52.2 vs —
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- ALST +258 · TROY -550
- Best price
- ALST +335 polymarketus · TROY -441 polymarketus
| Book | TROY spread | Total | ALST ML | TROY ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | — | — | +181 | -660 |
| polymarketus | — | — | +335 | -441 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.