Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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UC Davis Aggies
0-1 last yr · #127 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 4:00 PM ET
Gerald J. Ford Stadium · 98° · 16 mph wind · Mostly sunny
SMU Mustangs
9-4 last yr · #22 Elo
Spread SMU -34.5Total 63.5Moneyline UCD +678 · SMU -13792 books · best UCD +900 polymarketus · SMU -1329 polymarketus
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
SMU -1379
86%
model margin SMU by 18.4
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
UCD +34.5
56%
16.1 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 63.5
53%
model total 55.4

The read

On rating alone SMU Mustangs are 15.4 points better (#22 vs #127 of 240), and SMU add 3.1 for home field. The model lands on SMU by 18.4 against a market SMU by 34.5, so the spread lean is UCD by 16.1 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%. On the total the model sees 55.4 against 63.5, with weather taking 1.4 off.

Who has the edge

Model: SMU by 18.4 · market SMU by 34.5
Rating
Clear edge
SMU
SMU rated 15.4 points better on Elo (#22 vs #127).
Home & rest
Clear edge
SMU
SMU gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
SMU
SMU +14.4 per game over the last five, UCD −60.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
SMU
Consensus has SMU by 34.5; the model says SMU by 18.4.
context · not in the margin

The margin, factor by factor

Model: SMU by 18.4 · market SMU by 34.5
UC Davis AggiesSMU Mustangs
1438 Elo · #127
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
SMU +15.4 pts
1714 Elo · #22
road
Home field
SMU +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−13.0 pts vs SMU D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
SMU +25.7 pts
+12.7 pts vs UCD D
L · −60.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
SMU +37.2 pts
W L W W W · +14.4
UCD +34.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
SMU +34.5 pts
SMU -34.5

Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).

Dissect the matchup

CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)

Season

UCDSMU
0-1Record9-4
10.0Points for / game32.2
70.0Points against / game20.5
0-0 / 0-1Home / road6-1 / 3-3
0-1Against the spread6-7
1-0Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean.4-9
LLast 5W L W W W

Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.

Power ratings

UCDSMU
1438Elo1714
#127 of 240Rank#22 of 240
−3.9Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted.+7.2
−5.6Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good.+9.1
—Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season.—

Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.

Head to head

No meetings in our history.

How the margin was built

Rating gap
SMU +15.4 pts
Home field
SMU +3.1 pts
Rest
Even
Weather / roof
-1.4 pts on the total
Model margin
SMU by 18.4
Model total
55.4 vs 63.5

Market · 2 books

Spread
SMU -34.5
Total
63.5
Moneyline
UCD +678 · SMU -1379
Best price
UCD +900 polymarketus · SMU -1329 polymarketus
BookSMU spreadTotalUCD MLSMU ML
kalshi——+456-1429
polymarketus-34.5 (+186)63.5 (+233/-245)+900-1329

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.