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Sacred Heart Pioneers
0-0 last yr · #95 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM ET
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · 71° · 11 mph wind · Mostly sunny
Massachusetts Minutemen
1-0 · #239 Elo
Spread —Total 75.5Moneyline SHU +292 · MASS -12832 books · best SHU +351 kalshi · MASS -1237 kalshi
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
SHU +292
83%
model margin SHU by 16.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 75.5
57%
model total 56.7
The read
On rating alone Sacred Heart Pioneers are 19.5 points better (#95 vs #239 of 240), and MASS add 3.1 for home field; MASS carry a rest edge worth 0.3. On the total the model sees 56.7 against 75.5.
Who has the edge
Model: SHU by 16.1
Rating
Clear edge
SHU
SHU rated 19.5 points better on Elo (#239 vs #95).
Home & rest
Clear edge
MASS
MASS gets 3.1 points for home field and MASS 0.3 for rest.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
not priced
—
Not enough games.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: SHU by 16.1
Sacred Heart PioneersMassachusetts Minutemen
1465 Elo · #95
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
SHU +19.5 pts
1114 Elo · #239
road
Home field
MASS +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
MASS +0.3 pts
9d
+5.8 pts vs MASS D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
SHU +11.8 pts
−6.0 pts vs SHU D
—
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
not priced
W · +16.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| SHU | MASS | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| — | Points for / game | 37.0 |
| — | Points against / game | 21.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 0-0 / 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| — | Last 5 | W |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| SHU | MASS | |
|---|---|---|
| 1465 | Elo | 1114 |
| #95 of 240 | Rank | #239 of 240 |
| −2.0 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −6.9 |
| −0.8 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | −7.7 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1526 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- SHU +19.5 pts
- Home field
- MASS +3.1 pts
- Rest
- MASS +0.3 pts
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- SHU by 16.1
- Model total
- 56.7 vs 75.5
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- 75.5
- Moneyline
- SHU +292 · MASS -1283
- Best price
- SHU +351 kalshi · MASS -1237 kalshi
| Book | MASS spread | Total | SHU ML | MASS ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | — | — | +351 | -1237 |
| polymarketus | — | — | +233 | -1329 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.