← College Football slate
Maryland Terrapins
1-0 · #65 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM ET
Pratt & Whitney Stadium · 75° · Mostly sunny
UConn Huskies
1-0 · #48 Elo
Spread MD -12.5Total 53.5Moneyline MD -480 · CONN +3602 books · best MD -410 draftkings · CONN +400 fanduel
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
CONN +360
62%
model margin CONN by 5.4
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
CONN +12.5
56%
17.9 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 53.5
53%
model total 62.3
The read
On rating alone UConn Huskies are 2.3 points better (#48 vs #65 of 240), and CONN add 3.1 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the third down & red zone: CONN third-down conversion ranks #60, MD defends it at #102; the other way MD #99 into CONN's #50. The model lands on CONN by 5.4 against a market MD by 12.5, so the spread lean is CONN by 17.9 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%. On the total the model sees 62.3 against 53.5.
Who has the edge
Model: CONN by 5.4 · market MD by 12.5
Rating
Slight edge
CONN
CONN rated 2.3 points better on Elo (#48 vs #65).
Home & rest
Clear edge
CONN
CONN gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
Even
—
CONN passing ranks #11, MD defends it at #31; the other way MD #76 into CONN's #83.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
CONN
CONN rushing ranks #24, MD defends it at #88; the other way MD #109 into CONN's #122.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
CONN
CONN third-down conversion ranks #60, MD defends it at #102; the other way MD #99 into CONN's #50.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
MD
CONN +49.0 per game over the last five, MD +62.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
MD
Consensus has MD by 12.5; the model says CONN by 5.4.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: CONN by 5.4 · market MD by 12.5
Maryland TerrapinsUConn Huskies
1549 Elo · #65
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
CONN +2.3 pts
1591 Elo · #48
road
Home field
CONN +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
+3.3 pts vs CONN D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
MD +1.3 pts
+2.0 pts vs MD D
W · +62.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
MD +6.5 pts
W · +49.0
+0.6
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
CONN +4.5 pts
+5.1
MD -12.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
MD +12.5 pts
CONN +12.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸CONN power success (#8) against a MD defense ranked #106 at stopping it
- ▸MD passing-down ppa (#19) against a CONN defense ranked #113 at stopping it
- ▸CONN havoc rate faced (#11) against a MD defense ranked #103 at stopping it
- ▸CONN completion % (#14) against a MD defense ranked #86 at stopping it
- ▸CONN passing-down ppa (#14) against a MD defense ranked #85 at stopping it
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Maryland Terrapins offense vs UConn Huskies defense
ranks of 135| MD off | CONN def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 64% | 44% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 66% | 74% | · |
| Plays / game | 59 | 67 | · |
| Possession / game | 26:59 | 31:10 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.23#76 | +0.28#83 | · |
| Pass success rate | 41%#78 | 43%#89 | · |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.48#99 | 1.56#67 | CONN |
| Yards / pass attempt | 6.2#121 | 7.2#75 | CONN |
| Completion % | 58%#112 | 65%#110 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 3.9%#118 | 0.3%#135 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.04#109 | +0.21#122 | · |
| Rush success rate | 39%#104 | 50%#132 | MD |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.02#48 | 0.95#64 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.83#87 | 3.37#131 | MD |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 19%#73 | 12%#134 | MD |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 73%#63 | 67%#34 | CONN |
| Yards / rush | 4.2#85 | 4.7#102 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | −0.01#124 | +0.16#104 | · |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.46#19 | +0.40#113 | MD |
| Third-down conversion | 37%#99 | 37%#50 | CONN |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.39#99 | 3.80#82 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 14.2%#51 | 14.8%#91 | MD |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.17#60 | 1.31#65 | · |
UConn Huskies offense vs Maryland Terrapins defense
ranks of 135| CONN off | MD def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 54% | 45% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 68% | 71% | · |
| Plays / game | 60 | 62 | · |
| Possession / game | 28:50 | 33:01 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.44#11 | +0.16#31 | · |
| Pass success rate | 47%#22 | 43%#81 | CONN |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.59#48 | 1.56#74 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 8.2#28 | 7.1#67 | CONN |
| Completion % | 68%#14 | 63%#86 | CONN |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.4%#67 | 2.3%#70 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.21#24 | +0.13#88 | CONN |
| Rush success rate | 46%#44 | 46%#105 | CONN |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.04#38 | 0.90#38 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.93#68 | 3.06#101 | CONN |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 17%#39 | 17%#100 | CONN |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 82%#8 | 77%#106 | CONN |
| Yards / rush | 5.3#18 | 4.4#85 | CONN |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.24#11 | +0.06#47 | CONN |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.48#14 | +0.32#85 | CONN |
| Third-down conversion | 41%#60 | 42%#102 | CONN |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.58#14 | 3.60#62 | CONN |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 11.9%#11 | 14.1%#103 | CONN |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 0.15#1 | 1.75#20 | · |
Season
| MD | CONN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| 62.0 | Points for / game | 56.0 |
| 0.0 | Points against / game | 7.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| W | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| MD | CONN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1549 | Elo | 1591 |
| #65 of 240 | Rank | #48 of 240 |
| +5.3 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +7.3 |
| +5.3 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +2.0 |
| 1500 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1352 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| MD | CONN | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.2 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | −11.9 |
| 0.148 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.315 |
| 0.134 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.223 |
| 40% / 44% | Success rate (off / def) | 46% / 47% |
| 1.32 / 1.19 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.34 / 1.20 |
| 720 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 653 |
| 54% | Returning production | 2% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2024 | CONN 7 at MD 50 | MD · MD covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- CONN +2.3 pts
- Home field
- CONN +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- CONN by 5.4
- Model total
- 62.3 vs 53.5
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- MD -12.5
- Total
- 53.5
- Moneyline
- MD -480 · CONN +360
- Best price
- MD -410 draftkings · CONN +400 fanduel
| Book | CONN spread | Total | MD ML | CONN ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | — | — | -410 | +320 |
| fanduel | — | — | -550 | +400 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.