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Eastern Michigan Eagles
1-1 · #218 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM ET
Spartan Stadium · 78° · 15 mph wind · Partly sunny
Michigan State Spartans
1-0 · #80 Elo
Spread MSU -16.5Total 51.5Moneyline EMU +600 · MSU -9003 books · best EMU +660 fanduel · MSU -800 hardrockbet
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
MSU -900
79%
model margin MSU by 13.6
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean
EMU +16.5
51%
2.9 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Coin flip
Under 51.5
50%
model total 51.2
The read
On rating alone Michigan State Spartans are 10.5 points better (#80 vs #218 of 240), and MSU add 3.1 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the third down & red zone: EMU third-down conversion ranks #53, MSU defends it at #101; the other way MSU #110 into EMU's #129. The model lands on MSU by 13.6 against a market MSU by 16.5, so the spread lean is EMU by 2.9 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%.
Who has the edge
Model: MSU by 13.6 · market MSU by 16.5
Rating
Clear edge
MSU
MSU rated 10.5 points better on Elo (#80 vs #218).
Home & rest
Clear edge
MSU
MSU gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
Even
—
EMU passing ranks #56, MSU defends it at #102; the other way MSU #73 into EMU's #113.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Even
—
EMU rushing ranks #59, MSU defends it at #100; the other way MSU #95 into EMU's #116.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
EMU
EMU third-down conversion ranks #53, MSU defends it at #101; the other way MSU #110 into EMU's #129.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
MSU
MSU +10.0 per game over the last five, EMU +2.5.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
MSU
Consensus has MSU by 16.5; the model says MSU by 13.6.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: MSU by 13.6 · market MSU by 16.5
Eastern Michigan EaglesMichigan State Spartans
1312 Elo · #218
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
MSU +10.5 pts
1501 Elo · #80
road
Home field
MSU +3.1 pts
home
8d
Rest
even
8d
−8.0 pts vs MSU D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
MSU +11.3 pts
+3.3 pts vs EMU D
L W · +2.5
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
MSU +3.8 pts
W · +10.0
−14.7
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
MSU +11.3 pts
−3.4
EMU +16.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
MSU +16.5 pts
MSU -16.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸MSU turnovers / game (#36) against a EMU defense ranked #123 at stopping it
- ▸EMU havoc rate faced (#26) against a MSU defense ranked #112 at stopping it
- ▸EMU interception rate (#35) against a MSU defense ranked #111 at stopping it
- ▸EMU rush success rate (#49) against a MSU defense ranked #120 at stopping it
- ▸EMU turnovers / game (#58) against a MSU defense ranked #129 at stopping it
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Eastern Michigan Eagles offense vs Michigan State Spartans defense
ranks of 135| EMU off | MSU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 51% | 49% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 69% | 71% | · |
| Plays / game | 64 | 62 | · |
| Possession / game | 28:04 | 29:35 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.28#56 | +0.32#102 | EMU |
| Pass success rate | 40%#84 | 44%#103 | · |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.54#70 | 1.47#35 | MSU |
| Yards / pass attempt | 7.0#81 | 7.6#100 | · |
| Completion % | 61%#79 | 66%#115 | EMU |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.7%#35 | 1.6%#111 | EMU |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.14#59 | +0.16#100 | EMU |
| Rush success rate | 45%#49 | 47%#120 | EMU |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.95#75 | 0.91#43 | MSU |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.09#43 | 2.87#64 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 18%#55 | 17%#103 | EMU |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 64%#110 | 81%#124 | · |
| Yards / rush | 4.4#67 | 4.6#92 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.10#72 | +0.16#108 | EMU |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.40#31 | +0.33#86 | EMU |
| Third-down conversion | 41%#53 | 42%#101 | EMU |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.95#44 | 3.91#93 | EMU |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 12.9%#26 | 13.5%#112 | EMU |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.17#58 | 0.75#129 | EMU |
Michigan State Spartans offense vs Eastern Michigan Eagles defense
ranks of 135| MSU off | EMU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 51% | 39% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 70% | 69% | · |
| Plays / game | 62 | 68 | · |
| Possession / game | 30:12 | 31:53 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.24#73 | +0.35#113 | MSU |
| Pass success rate | 42%#67 | 44%#104 | MSU |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.44#111 | 1.61#95 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 7.1#75 | 7.5#90 | · |
| Completion % | 63%#53 | 61%#51 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.3%#17 | 3.7%#16 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.06#95 | +0.19#116 | · |
| Rush success rate | 42%#83 | 44%#89 | · |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.95#73 | 1.06#110 | MSU |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.56#127 | 3.14#107 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 25%#131 | 17%#97 | EMU |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 65%#109 | 72%#73 | EMU |
| Yards / rush | 3.8#104 | 5.5#133 | MSU |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.02#111 | +0.21#123 | · |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.37#44 | +0.32#81 | MSU |
| Third-down conversion | 35%#110 | 46%#129 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.75#63 | 3.88#87 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 18.0%#115 | 10.6%#134 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.00#36 | 0.75#123 | MSU |
Season
| EMU | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Record | 1-0 |
| 24.5 | Points for / game | 30.0 |
| 22.0 | Points against / game | 20.0 |
| 1-1 / 0-0 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 1-1 | Against the spread | 0-0-1 |
| 0-2 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| L W | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| EMU | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1312 | Elo | 1501 |
| #218 of 240 | Rank | #80 of 240 |
| −3.3 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +3.8 |
| +0.5 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +4.8 |
| 1381 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1591 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| EMU | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| −16.1 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | +2.2 |
| 0.193 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.125 |
| 0.243 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.210 |
| 42% / 44% | Success rate (off / def) | 42% / 45% |
| 1.24 / 1.29 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.21 / 1.18 |
| 581 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 685 |
| 72% | Returning production | 21% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- MSU +10.5 pts
- Home field
- MSU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- -1.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- MSU by 13.6
- Model total
- 51.2 vs 51.5
Market · 3 books
- Spread
- MSU -16.5
- Total
- 51.5
- Moneyline
- EMU +600 · MSU -900
- Best price
- EMU +660 fanduel · MSU -800 hardrockbet
| Book | MSU spread | Total | EMU ML | MSU ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | -16.5 (-105) | 51.5 (-112/-108) | +600 | -900 |
| fanduel | — | — | +660 | -1050 |
| hardrockbet | — | — | +525 | -800 |
Spreadopened MSU -16.5 · now MSU -16.5
Totalopened 51.5 · now 51.5
Consensus of the books we track, hourly, since we first priced the game. The arrow on the spread is from the home side: ▲ means the home side is laying more.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.