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California Golden Bears
7-6 last yr · #83 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM ET
JMA Wireless Dome · Indoors
Syracuse Orange
1-0 · #158 Elo
Spread CAL -1.5Total 52.5Moneyline CAL -125 · SYR +1053 books · best CAL -120 draftkings · SYR +105 fanduel
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
CAL -125
54%
model margin CAL by 1.8
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Coin flip
CAL -1.5
50%
0.3 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 52.5
53%
model total 60.1
The read
On rating alone California Golden Bears are 4.9 points better (#83 vs #158 of 240), and SYR add 3.1 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the passing game: CAL passing ranks #77, SYR defends it at #130; the other way SYR #123 into CAL's #23. The model lands on CAL by 1.8, essentially the market's number — no spread lean. On the total the model sees 60.1 against 52.5.
Who has the edge
Model: CAL by 1.8 · market CAL by 1.5
Rating
Clear edge
CAL
CAL rated 4.9 points better on Elo (#158 vs #83).
Home & rest
Clear edge
SYR
SYR gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
Clear edge
CAL
CAL passing ranks #77, SYR defends it at #130; the other way SYR #123 into CAL's #23.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
SYR
SYR rushing ranks #121, CAL defends it at #121; the other way CAL #132 into SYR's #77.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
CAL
CAL third-down conversion ranks #61, SYR defends it at #86; the other way SYR #107 into CAL's #98.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
SYR
SYR +63.0 per game over the last five, CAL −5.8.
context · not in the margin
Market
Slight edge
CAL
Consensus has CAL by 1.5; the model says CAL by 1.8.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: CAL by 1.8 · market CAL by 1.5
California Golden BearsSyracuse Orange
1493 Elo · #83
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
CAL +4.9 pts
1406 Elo · #158
road
Home field
SYR +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
+1.0 pts vs SYR D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
SYR +0.6 pts
+1.6 pts vs CAL D
L W L W L · −5.8
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
SYR +34.4 pts
W · +63.0
CAL -1.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
CAL +1.5 pts
SYR +1.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸CAL defense (#15 passing-down ppa allowed) against a SYR offense ranked #127
- ▸CAL defense (#23 passing ppa / play allowed) against a SYR offense ranked #123
- ▸CAL defense (#34 pass success rate allowed) against a SYR offense ranked #124
- ▸CAL defense (#25 yards / pass attempt allowed) against a SYR offense ranked #112
- ▸CAL passing-down ppa (#49) against a SYR defense ranked #131 at stopping it
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
California Golden Bears offense vs Syracuse Orange defense
ranks of 135| CAL off | SYR def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 60% | 52% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 68% | 71% | · |
| Plays / game | 69 | 57 | · |
| Possession / game | 30:14 | 29:32 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.23#77 | +0.44#130 | CAL |
| Pass success rate | 43%#57 | 46%#120 | CAL |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.45#107 | 1.54#59 | SYR |
| Yards / pass attempt | 7.1#73 | 7.8#112 | CAL |
| Completion % | 64%#50 | 66%#121 | CAL |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.6%#25 | 3.8%#12 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | −0.04#132 | +0.11#77 | SYR |
| Rush success rate | 38%#117 | 45%#98 | · |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.89#103 | 1.04#106 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.64#119 | 2.92#76 | SYR |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 18%#57 | 21%#42 | · |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 70%#82 | 64%#24 | SYR |
| Yards / rush | 2.8#132 | 5.3#131 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.01#112 | +0.19#119 | · |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.36#49 | +0.48#131 | CAL |
| Third-down conversion | 40%#61 | 41%#86 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.70#65 | 4.15#113 | CAL |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 16.4%#91 | 13.4%#114 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.23#66 | 0.75#126 | CAL |
Syracuse Orange offense vs California Golden Bears defense
ranks of 135| SYR off | CAL def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 52% | 51% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 67% | 68% | · |
| Plays / game | 56 | 65 | · |
| Possession / game | 30:28 | 29:46 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.10#123 | +0.14#23 | CAL |
| Pass success rate | 35%#124 | 38%#34 | CAL |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.58#51 | 1.40#10 | CAL |
| Yards / pass attempt | 6.4#112 | 6.4#25 | CAL |
| Completion % | 56%#121 | 62%#66 | CAL |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.2%#14 | 2.4%#68 | SYR |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.00#121 | +0.21#121 | · |
| Rush success rate | 41%#94 | 47%#117 | · |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.87#115 | 0.98#81 | CAL |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.61#122 | 3.32#128 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 19%#68 | 13%#133 | SYR |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 70%#83 | 85%#130 | SYR |
| Yards / rush | 3.4#124 | 4.8#106 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | −0.01#123 | +0.17#113 | · |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.12#127 | +0.16#15 | CAL |
| Third-down conversion | 35%#107 | 42%#98 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.98#122 | 3.69#71 | CAL |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 18.8%#126 | 15.1%#81 | CAL |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.92#129 | 1.00#102 | CAL |
Season
| CAL | SYR | |
|---|---|---|
| 7-6 | Record | 1-0 |
| 25.3 | Points for / game | 66.0 |
| 27.2 | Points against / game | 3.0 |
| 4-2 / 3-4 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 5-8 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 5-8 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| L W L W L | Last 5 | W |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| CAL | SYR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1493 | Elo | 1406 |
| #83 of 240 | Rank | #158 of 240 |
| +2.9 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +2.7 |
| +1.1 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +1.9 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1422 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| CAL | SYR | |
|---|---|---|
| — | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | −1.9 |
| 0.123 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.034 |
| 0.169 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.276 |
| 41% / 42% | Success rate (off / def) | 38% / 45% |
| 1.25 / 1.18 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.21 / 1.32 |
| — | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 746 |
| — | Returning production | 35% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2024 | SYR 33 at CAL 25 | SYR · SYR covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- CAL +4.9 pts
- Home field
- SYR +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- Indoors
- Model margin
- CAL by 1.8
- Model total
- 60.1 vs 52.5
Market · 3 books
- Spread
- CAL -1.5
- Total
- 52.5
- Moneyline
- CAL -125 · SYR +105
- Best price
- CAL -120 draftkings · SYR +105 fanduel
| Book | SYR spread | Total | CAL ML | SYR ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | — | — | -120 | +100 |
| fanduel | — | — | -126 | +105 |
| hardrockbet | — | — | -125 | +105 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.