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Weber State Wildcats
0-2 last yr · #140 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM ET
Folsom Field · 79° · Partly sunny
Colorado Buffaloes
1-0 · #153 Elo
Spread —Total 61.5Moneyline WEB +733 · COLO -1438
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
COLO -1438
57%
model margin COLO by 2.8
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 61.5
55%
model total 48.2
The read
On rating alone Weber State Wildcats are 0.5 points better (#140 vs #153 of 240), and COLO add 3.1 for home field; COLO carry a rest edge worth 0.3. On the total the model sees 48.2 against 61.5.
Who has the edge
Model: COLO by 2.8
Rating
Even
—
WEB rated 0.5 points better on Elo (#153 vs #140).
Home & rest
Clear edge
COLO
COLO gets 3.1 points for home field and COLO 0.3 for rest.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
COLO
COLO +1.0 per game over the last five, WEB −40.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: COLO by 2.8
Weber State WildcatsColorado Buffaloes
1422 Elo · #140
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
WEB +0.5 pts
1412 Elo · #153
road
Home field
COLO +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
COLO +0.3 pts
9d
−10.2 pts vs COLO D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
COLO +11.6 pts
+1.4 pts vs WEB D
L L · −40.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
COLO +20.5 pts
W · +1.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| WEB | COLO | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 1-0 |
| 6.5 | Points for / game | 14.0 |
| 46.5 | Points against / game | 13.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-2 | Home / road | 0-0 / 1-0 |
| 0-2 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 1-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| L L | Last 5 | W |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| WEB | COLO | |
|---|---|---|
| 1422 | Elo | 1412 |
| #140 of 240 | Rank | #153 of 240 |
| −6.3 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −2.4 |
| −3.8 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +3.9 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1627 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- WEB +0.5 pts
- Home field
- COLO +3.1 pts
- Rest
- COLO +0.3 pts
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- COLO by 2.8
- Model total
- 48.2 vs 61.5
Market · 1 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- 61.5
- Moneyline
- WEB +733 · COLO -1438
- Best price
- WEB +733 polymarketus · COLO -1438 polymarketus
| Book | COLO spread | Total | WEB ML | COLO ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarketus | — | 61.5 (+223/-233) | +733 | -1438 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.