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Arizona Wildcats
1-0 · #27 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM ET
LaVell Edwards Stadium · 73° · Intermittent clouds
BYU Cougars
1-0 · #17 Elo
Spread BYU -7Total 51.5Moneyline ARIZ +240 · BYU -2983 books · best ARIZ +265 fanduel · BYU -275 hardrockbet
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
BYU -298
66%
model margin BYU by 7.0
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Coin flip
BYU -7
50%
0.0 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Coin flip
Under 51.5
50%
model total 51.0
The read
On rating alone BYU Cougars are 4.0 points better (#17 vs #27 of 240), and BYU add 3.1 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: BYU rushing ranks #26, ARIZ defends it at #72; the other way ARIZ #54 into BYU's #45. The model lands on BYU by 7.0, essentially the market's number — no spread lean.
Who has the edge
Model: BYU by 7.0 · market BYU by 7
Rating
Clear edge
BYU
BYU rated 4.0 points better on Elo (#17 vs #27).
Home & rest
Clear edge
BYU
BYU gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
Even
—
BYU passing ranks #54, ARIZ defends it at #35; the other way ARIZ #72 into BYU's #37.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
BYU
BYU rushing ranks #26, ARIZ defends it at #72; the other way ARIZ #54 into BYU's #45.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
BYU
BYU third-down conversion ranks #49, ARIZ defends it at #25; the other way ARIZ #54 into BYU's #20.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
BYU
BYU +56.0 per game over the last five, ARIZ +28.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
BYU
Consensus has BYU by 7; the model says BYU by 7.0.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: BYU by 7.0 · market BYU by 7
Arizona WildcatsBYU Cougars
1689 Elo · #27
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
BYU +4.0 pts
1760 Elo · #17
road
Home field
BYU +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−6.2 pts vs BYU D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
BYU +6.3 pts
+0.2 pts vs ARIZ D
W · +28.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
BYU +14.0 pts
W · +56.0
ARIZ +7
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
BYU +7.0 pts
BYU -7
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸BYU power success (#5) against a ARIZ defense ranked #78 at stopping it
- ▸BYU defense (#23 pass explosiveness allowed) against a ARIZ offense ranked #92
- ▸BYU rush success rate (#32) against a ARIZ defense ranked #97 at stopping it
- ▸BYU defense (#33 rush success rate allowed) against a ARIZ offense ranked #86
- ▸ARIZ defense (#1 takeaways / game) against a BYU offense ranked #48
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Arizona Wildcats offense vs BYU Cougars defense
ranks of 135| ARIZ off | BYU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 54% | 52% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 68% | 66% | · |
| Plays / game | 63 | 61 | · |
| Possession / game | 30:57 | 27:17 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.24#72 | +0.18#37 | BYU |
| Pass success rate | 43%#52 | 40%#59 | · |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.51#92 | 1.45#23 | BYU |
| Yards / pass attempt | 7.4#59 | 6.5#34 | · |
| Completion % | 63%#60 | 58%#23 | BYU |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 4.9%#128 | 1.5%#115 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.14#54 | +0.06#45 | · |
| Rush success rate | 42%#86 | 39%#33 | BYU |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.04#43 | 0.96#70 | ARIZ |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.10#41 | 2.83#54 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 19%#70 | 21%#38 | BYU |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 74%#54 | 75%#95 | ARIZ |
| Yards / rush | 4.3#73 | 3.8#42 | BYU |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.10#79 | +0.05#44 | BYU |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.38#40 | +0.16#16 | · |
| Third-down conversion | 41%#54 | 33%#20 | BYU |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.61#78 | 3.29#35 | BYU |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 14.7%#57 | 15.8%#64 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.00#27 | 1.71#21 | · |
BYU Cougars offense vs Arizona Wildcats defense
ranks of 135| BYU off | ARIZ def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 45% | 46% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 70% | 68% | · |
| Plays / game | 63 | 59 | · |
| Possession / game | 32:43 | 29:03 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.28#54 | +0.17#35 | · |
| Pass success rate | 44%#48 | 34%#10 | ARIZ |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.50#93 | 1.62#100 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 7.7#44 | 5.6#5 | ARIZ |
| Completion % | 64%#49 | 54%#7 | ARIZ |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 4.2%#123 | 2.1%#90 | ARIZ |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.20#26 | +0.11#72 | BYU |
| Rush success rate | 47%#32 | 45%#97 | BYU |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.95#77 | 0.90#34 | ARIZ |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.00#57 | 2.85#60 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 17%#38 | 18%#81 | BYU |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 82%#5 | 72%#78 | BYU |
| Yards / rush | 4.8#40 | 4.0#50 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.17#36 | +0.04#35 | · |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.34#54 | +0.22#39 | · |
| Third-down conversion | 41%#49 | 34%#25 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.03#39 | 3.38#44 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 13.6%#43 | 20.2%#5 | ARIZ |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.14#48 | 2.38#1 | ARIZ |
Season
| ARIZ | BYU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| 35.0 | Points for / game | 63.0 |
| 7.0 | Points against / game | 7.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| W | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| ARIZ | BYU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1689 | Elo | 1760 |
| #27 of 240 | Rank | #17 of 240 |
| +5.2 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +9.7 |
| +9.6 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +11.3 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1456 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| ARIZ | BYU | |
|---|---|---|
| — | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | +14.9 |
| 0.187 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.218 |
| 0.100 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.090 |
| 43% / 39% | Success rate (off / def) | 46% / 39% |
| 1.29 / 1.20 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.19 / 1.22 |
| — | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 689 |
| — | Returning production | 79% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2025 | BYU 33 at ARIZ 27 | BYU · BYU covered |
| 2024 | ARIZ 19 at BYU 41 | BYU · BYU covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- BYU +4.0 pts
- Home field
- BYU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- BYU by 7.0
- Model total
- 51.0 vs 51.5
Market · 3 books
- Spread
- BYU -7
- Total
- 51.5
- Moneyline
- ARIZ +240 · BYU -298
- Best price
- ARIZ +265 fanduel · BYU -275 hardrockbet
| Book | BYU spread | Total | ARIZ ML | BYU ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | -7 (-110) | 51.5 (-110/-110) | +240 | -298 |
| fanduel | — | — | +265 | -335 |
| hardrockbet | — | — | +200 | -275 |
Spreadopened BYU -6.75 · now BYU -7 ▲ 0.3
Totalopened 51.5 · now 51.5
Consensus of the books we track, hourly, since we first priced the game. The arrow on the spread is from the home side: ▲ means the home side is laying more.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.