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Holy Cross Crusaders
0-1 last yr · #115 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 1:00 PM ET
Yager Stadium · 75° · Sunny
Miami (OH) RedHawks
0-1 · #137 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline HC +615 · M-OH -10822 books · best HC +700 polymarketus · M-OH -1076 polymarketus
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
M-OH -1082
55%
model margin M-OH by 2.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 53.0
The read
On rating alone Holy Cross Crusaders are 1.0 points better (#115 vs #137 of 240), and M-OH add 3.1 for home field.
Who has the edge
Model: M-OH by 2.1
Rating
Even
—
HC rated 1.0 points better on Elo (#137 vs #115).
Home & rest
Clear edge
M-OH
M-OH gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
HC
M-OH −45.0 per game over the last five, HC −2.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: M-OH by 2.1
Holy Cross CrusadersMiami (OH) RedHawks
1445 Elo · #115
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
HC +1.0 pts
1427 Elo · #137
road
Home field
M-OH +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−1.4 pts vs M-OH D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
HC +1.2 pts
−2.6 pts vs HC D
L · −2.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
HC +21.5 pts
L · −45.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| HC | M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 0-1 |
| 17.0 | Points for / game | 14.0 |
| 19.0 | Points against / game | 59.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| L | Last 5 | L |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| HC | M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| 1445 | Elo | 1427 |
| #115 of 240 | Rank | #137 of 240 |
| −2.1 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −2.9 |
| −0.3 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | −0.7 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1624 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- HC +1.0 pts
- Home field
- M-OH +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- M-OH by 2.1
- Model total
- 53.0 vs —
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- HC +615 · M-OH -1082
- Best price
- HC +700 polymarketus · M-OH -1076 polymarketus
| Book | M-OH spread | Total | HC ML | M-OH ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | — | — | +529 | -1088 |
| polymarketus | — | — | +700 | -1076 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.