← College Football slate
UT Martin Skyhawks
0-3 last yr · #207 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 1:00 PM ET
Milan Puskar Stadium · 73° · Mostly sunny
West Virginia Mountaineers
1-0 · #123 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline UTM +525 · WVU -4900
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
WVU -4900
69%
model margin WVU by 8.3
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 52.6
The read
On rating alone West Virginia Mountaineers are 5.3 points better (#123 vs #207 of 240), and WVU add 3.1 for home field.
Who has the edge
Model: WVU by 8.3
Rating
Clear edge
WVU
WVU rated 5.3 points better on Elo (#123 vs #207).
Home & rest
Clear edge
WVU
WVU gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
WVU
WVU +7.0 per game over the last five, UTM −25.7.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: WVU by 8.3
UT Martin SkyhawksWest Virginia Mountaineers
1346 Elo · #207
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
WVU +5.3 pts
1441 Elo · #123
road
Home field
WVU +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−8.9 pts vs WVU D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
WVU +13.4 pts
+4.5 pts vs UTM D
L L L · −25.7
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
WVU +16.3 pts
W · +7.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| UTM | WVU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | Record | 1-0 |
| 11.3 | Points for / game | 31.0 |
| 37.0 | Points against / game | 24.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-3 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 0-2 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 1-2 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| L L L | Last 5 | W |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| UTM | WVU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1346 | Elo | 1441 |
| #207 of 240 | Rank | #123 of 240 |
| −7.9 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +0.4 |
| −4.2 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +1.0 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1311 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- WVU +5.3 pts
- Home field
- WVU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- WVU by 8.3
- Model total
- 52.6 vs —
Market · 1 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- UTM +525 · WVU -4900
- Best price
- UTM +525 polymarketus · WVU -4900 polymarketus
| Book | WVU spread | Total | UTM ML | WVU ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarketus | — | — | +525 | -4900 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.