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Wake Forest Demon Deacons
1-0 · #46 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET
Ross-Ade Stadium · 75° · 14 mph wind · Mostly sunny
Purdue Boilermakers
1-0 · #122 Elo
Spread WAKE -3.5Total 49.5Moneyline WAKE -225 · PUR +1843 books · best WAKE -155 draftkings · PUR +185 hardrockbet
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
WAKE -225
63%
model margin WAKE by 5.8
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean
WAKE -3.5
51%
2.3 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 49.5
52%
model total 54.0
The read
On rating alone Wake Forest Demon Deacons are 8.7 points better (#46 vs #122 of 240), and PUR add 3.1 for home field; WAKE carry a rest edge worth 0.2. The clearest mismatch is the passing game: WAKE passing ranks #68, PUR defends it at #123; the other way PUR #116 into WAKE's #12. The model lands on WAKE by 5.8 against a market WAKE by 3.5, so the spread lean is WAKE by 2.3 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%. On the total the model sees 54.0 against 49.5.
Who has the edge
Model: WAKE by 5.8 · market WAKE by 3.5
Rating
Clear edge
WAKE
WAKE rated 8.7 points better on Elo (#122 vs #46).
Home & rest
Clear edge
PUR
PUR gets 3.1 points for home field and WAKE 0.2 for rest.
Passing game
Clear edge
WAKE
WAKE passing ranks #68, PUR defends it at #123; the other way PUR #116 into WAKE's #12.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
WAKE
WAKE rushing ranks #67, PUR defends it at #112; the other way PUR #53 into WAKE's #10.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
WAKE
WAKE third-down conversion ranks #68, PUR defends it at #113; the other way PUR #86 into WAKE's #40.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Slight edge
PUR
PUR +25.0 per game over the last five, WAKE +22.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
WAKE
Consensus has WAKE by 3.5; the model says WAKE by 5.8.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: WAKE by 5.8 · market WAKE by 3.5
Wake Forest Demon DeaconsPurdue Boilermakers
1598 Elo · #46
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
WAKE +8.7 pts
1442 Elo · #122
road
Home field
PUR +3.1 pts
home
9d
Rest
WAKE +0.2 pts
8d
+3.8 pts vs PUR D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
WAKE +10.1 pts
−6.2 pts vs WAKE D
W · +22.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
PUR +1.5 pts
W · +25.0
+5.7
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
WAKE +11.8 pts
−6.1
WAKE -3.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
WAKE +3.5 pts
PUR +3.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸WAKE defense (#22 power success allowed) against a PUR offense ranked #135
- ▸WAKE defense (#12 passing ppa / play allowed) against a PUR offense ranked #116
- ▸WAKE defense (#15 standard-down ppa allowed) against a PUR offense ranked #119
- ▸WAKE defense (#8 yards / pass attempt allowed) against a PUR offense ranked #108
- ▸WAKE power success (#21) against a PUR defense ranked #112 at stopping it
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons offense vs Purdue Boilermakers defense
ranks of 135| WAKE off | PUR def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 49% | 43% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 67% | 72% | · |
| Plays / game | 61 | 57 | · |
| Possession / game | 29:05 | 31:58 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.25#68 | +0.40#123 | WAKE |
| Pass success rate | 37%#114 | 48%#127 | · |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.75#12 | 1.62#101 | WAKE |
| Yards / pass attempt | 7.6#51 | 9.3#133 | WAKE |
| Completion % | 57%#118 | 65%#109 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.0%#8 | 4.2%#8 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.11#67 | +0.18#112 | WAKE |
| Rush success rate | 40%#99 | 49%#127 | WAKE |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.12#11 | 0.86#17 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.79#100 | 3.25#121 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 18%#61 | 18%#78 | · |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 79%#21 | 78%#112 | WAKE |
| Yards / rush | 4.5#61 | 4.8#109 | WAKE |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.07#94 | +0.27#132 | WAKE |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.33#59 | +0.26#58 | · |
| Third-down conversion | 40%#68 | 43%#113 | WAKE |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.23#112 | 4.03#106 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 15.5%#72 | 15.2%#77 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.62#112 | 0.75#125 | · |
Purdue Boilermakers offense vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons defense
ranks of 135| PUR off | WAKE def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 52% | 51% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 68% | 64% | · |
| Plays / game | 56 | 63 | · |
| Possession / game | 28:02 | 30:55 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.14#116 | +0.10#12 | WAKE |
| Pass success rate | 43%#53 | 33%#7 | WAKE |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.42#117 | 1.53#55 | WAKE |
| Yards / pass attempt | 6.5#108 | 5.9#8 | WAKE |
| Completion % | 59%#102 | 59%#32 | WAKE |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.0%#9 | 2.4%#65 | PUR |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.15#53 | −0.02#10 | WAKE |
| Rush success rate | 43%#70 | 37%#12 | WAKE |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.04#41 | 0.88#26 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.94#66 | 2.49#9 | WAKE |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 19%#76 | 27%#4 | WAKE |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 56%#135 | 64%#22 | WAKE |
| Yards / rush | 4.0#93 | 3.4#16 | WAKE |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | −0.00#119 | −0.03#15 | WAKE |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.36#50 | +0.13#13 | WAKE |
| Third-down conversion | 38%#86 | 36%#40 | WAKE |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.06#119 | 3.24#31 | WAKE |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 16.0%#83 | 18.2%#22 | WAKE |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.75#119 | 1.15#90 | WAKE |
Season
| WAKE | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| 38.0 | Points for / game | 44.0 |
| 16.0 | Points against / game | 19.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| W | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| WAKE | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1598 | Elo | 1442 |
| #46 of 240 | Rank | #122 of 240 |
| +4.4 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −0.2 |
| +6.0 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +0.5 |
| 1302 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1409 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| WAKE | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.4 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | −2.2 |
| 0.151 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.114 |
| 0.026 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.266 |
| 38% / 35% | Success rate (off / def) | 43% / 48% |
| 1.43 / 1.20 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.24 / 1.21 |
| 681 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 698 |
| 14% | Returning production | 48% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- WAKE +8.7 pts
- Home field
- PUR +3.1 pts
- Rest
- WAKE +0.2 pts
- Weather / roof
- -0.6 pts on the total
- Model margin
- WAKE by 5.8
- Model total
- 54.0 vs 49.5
Market · 3 books
- Spread
- WAKE -3.5
- Total
- 49.5
- Moneyline
- WAKE -225 · PUR +184
- Best price
- WAKE -155 draftkings · PUR +185 hardrockbet
| Book | PUR spread | Total | WAKE ML | PUR ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | +3.5 (-115) | 49.5 (-110/-110) | -155 | +130 |
| fanduel | — | — | -225 | +184 |
| hardrockbet | — | — | -240 | +185 |
Spreadopened WAKE -3.5 · now WAKE -3.5
Totalopened 49.5 · now 49.5
Consensus of the books we track, hourly, since we first priced the game. The arrow on the spread is from the home side: ▲ means the home side is laying more.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.