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Washington State Cougars
7-6 last yr · #60 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET
Bill Snyder Family Stadium · 84° · Partly sunny
Kansas State Wildcats
1-0 · #37 Elo
Spread KSU -16.5Total 51.5Moneyline WSU +650 · KSU -10003 books · best WSU +800 fanduel · KSU -850 hardrockbet
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
KSU -1000
66%
model margin KSU by 7.3
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
WSU +16.5
53%
9.2 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Coin flip
Over 51.5
50%
model total 51.8
The read
On rating alone Kansas State Wildcats are 4.3 points better (#37 vs #60 of 240), and KSU add 3.1 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the third down & red zone: WSU third-down conversion ranks #87, KSU defends it at #68; the other way KSU #94 into WSU's #32. The model lands on KSU by 7.3 against a market KSU by 16.5, so the spread lean is WSU by 9.2 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%.
Who has the edge
Model: KSU by 7.3 · market KSU by 16.5
Rating
Clear edge
KSU
KSU rated 4.3 points better on Elo (#37 vs #60).
Home & rest
Clear edge
KSU
KSU gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
Even
—
KSU passing ranks #64, WSU defends it at #16; the other way WSU #93 into KSU's #27.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Even
—
KSU rushing ranks #40, WSU defends it at #55; the other way WSU #78 into KSU's #80.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
WSU
WSU third-down conversion ranks #87, KSU defends it at #68; the other way KSU #94 into WSU's #32.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
KSU
KSU +68.0 per game over the last five, WSU +11.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
KSU
Consensus has KSU by 16.5; the model says KSU by 7.3.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: KSU by 7.3 · market KSU by 16.5
Washington State CougarsKansas State Wildcats
1560 Elo · #60
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
KSU +4.3 pts
1637 Elo · #37
road
Home field
KSU +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−6.5 pts vs KSU D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
KSU +7.9 pts
+1.3 pts vs WSU D
W W L W L · +11.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
KSU +28.5 pts
W · +68.0
+3.8
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
KSU +3.2 pts
+7.0
WSU +16.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
KSU +16.5 pts
KSU -16.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸KSU defense (#4 takeaways / game) against a WSU offense ranked #111
- ▸WSU defense (#6 interceptions forced) against a KSU offense ranked #110
- ▸WSU interception rate (#22) against a KSU defense ranked #101 at stopping it
- ▸WSU defense (#2 passing-down ppa allowed) against a KSU offense ranked #78
- ▸KSU defense (#50 passing-down ppa allowed) against a WSU offense ranked #122
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Washington State Cougars offense vs Kansas State Wildcats defense
ranks of 135| WSU off | KSU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 50% | 47% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 68% | 67% | · |
| Plays / game | 62 | 72 | · |
| Possession / game | 32:24 | 30:59 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.21#93 | +0.15#27 | KSU |
| Pass success rate | 41%#72 | 38%#30 | KSU |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.40#120 | 1.58#86 | KSU |
| Yards / pass attempt | 6.7#95 | 6.8#53 | KSU |
| Completion % | 64%#44 | 57%#22 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.5%#22 | 1.8%#101 | WSU |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.09#78 | +0.12#80 | · |
| Rush success rate | 43%#68 | 41%#61 | · |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.85#118 | 1.12#128 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.82#91 | 2.73#38 | KSU |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 20%#95 | 20%#55 | KSU |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 68%#94 | 70%#56 | KSU |
| Yards / rush | 3.9#101 | 4.1#57 | KSU |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.13#56 | +0.07#58 | · |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.15#122 | +0.24#50 | KSU |
| Third-down conversion | 38%#87 | 39%#68 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.93#48 | 3.45#49 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 15.7%#73 | 16.7%#47 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.62#111 | 2.17#4 | KSU |
Kansas State Wildcats offense vs Washington State Cougars defense
ranks of 135| KSU off | WSU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 47% | 47% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 66% | 69% | · |
| Plays / game | 63 | 56 | · |
| Possession / game | 29:01 | 27:36 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.25#64 | +0.11#16 | WSU |
| Pass success rate | 41%#80 | 37%#27 | WSU |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.61#39 | 1.43#18 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 7.0#82 | 6.4#29 | WSU |
| Completion % | 60%#92 | 64%#94 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 3.8%#110 | 4.3%#6 | WSU |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.18#40 | +0.08#55 | · |
| Rush success rate | 41%#93 | 44%#93 | · |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.20#3 | 0.83#11 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.82#92 | 2.97#79 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 22%#118 | 18%#79 | WSU |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 67%#100 | 71%#70 | WSU |
| Yards / rush | 5.2#22 | 3.9#48 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.17#35 | +0.08#63 | KSU |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.28#78 | +0.06#2 | WSU |
| Third-down conversion | 37%#94 | 35%#32 | WSU |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.15#32 | 3.14#27 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 17.5%#107 | 14.5%#97 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.25#67 | 0.85#114 | KSU |
Season
| WSU | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 7-6 | Record | 1-0 |
| 22.5 | Points for / game | 71.0 |
| 20.2 | Points against / game | 3.0 |
| 5-1 / 2-5 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 9-4 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 4-9 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| W W L W L | Last 5 | W |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| WSU | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1560 | Elo | 1637 |
| #60 of 240 | Rank | #37 of 240 |
| +1.2 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +10.7 |
| +9.4 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +7.7 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1382 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| WSU | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| −4.3 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | +9.2 |
| 0.134 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.204 |
| 0.073 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.127 |
| 42% / 40% | Success rate (off / def) | 41% / 39% |
| 1.12 / 1.09 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.39 / 1.33 |
| 630 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 719 |
| 91% | Returning production | 71% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- KSU +4.3 pts
- Home field
- KSU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- KSU by 7.3
- Model total
- 51.8 vs 51.5
Market · 3 books
- Spread
- KSU -16.5
- Total
- 51.5
- Moneyline
- WSU +650 · KSU -1000
- Best price
- WSU +800 fanduel · KSU -850 hardrockbet
| Book | KSU spread | Total | WSU ML | KSU ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | -16.5 (-112) | 51.5 (-112/-108) | +650 | -1000 |
| fanduel | — | — | +800 | -1400 |
| hardrockbet | — | — | +550 | -850 |
Spreadopened KSU -16.5 · now KSU -16.5
Totalopened 51.5 · now 51.5
Consensus of the books we track, hourly, since we first priced the game. The arrow on the spread is from the home side: ▲ means the home side is laying more.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.