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Missouri Tigers
1-0 · #21 Elo
at
Fri, Sep 11, 8:00 PM ET
David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium · 82° · 16 mph wind · Intermittent clouds
Kansas Jayhawks
1-0 · #51 Elo
Spread MIZ -6.5Total 51Moneyline MIZ -260 · KU +2004 books · best MIZ -218 draftkings · KU +205 fanduel
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
MIZ -260
60%
model margin MIZ by 4.3
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean
KU +6.5
51%
2.2 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Under 51
51%
model total 48.2
The read
On rating alone Missouri Tigers are 7.2 points better (#21 vs #51 of 240), and KU add 3.1 for home field; MIZ carry a rest edge worth 0.2. The clearest mismatch is the third down & red zone: MIZ third-down conversion ranks #30, KU defends it at #88; the other way KU #79 into MIZ's #38. The model lands on MIZ by 4.3 against a market MIZ by 6.5, so the spread lean is KU by 2.2 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%. On the total the model sees 48.2 against 51, with weather taking 1.3 off.
Who has the edge
Model: MIZ by 4.3 · market MIZ by 6.5
Rating
Clear edge
MIZ
MIZ rated 7.2 points better on Elo (#51 vs #21).
Home & rest
Clear edge
KU
KU gets 3.1 points for home field and MIZ 0.2 for rest.
Passing game
Slight edge
MIZ
MIZ passing ranks #107, KU defends it at #121; the other way KU #45 into MIZ's #14.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
MIZ
MIZ rushing ranks #15, KU defends it at #86; the other way KU #19 into MIZ's #20.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
MIZ
MIZ third-down conversion ranks #30, KU defends it at #88; the other way KU #79 into MIZ's #38.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Slight edge
KU
KU +45.0 per game over the last five, MIZ +40.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
MIZ
Consensus has MIZ by 6.5; the model says MIZ by 4.3.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: MIZ by 4.3 · market MIZ by 6.5
Missouri TigersKansas Jayhawks
1715 Elo · #21
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
MIZ +7.2 pts
1586 Elo · #51
road
Home field
KU +3.1 pts
home
8d
Rest
MIZ +0.2 pts
7d
−1.1 pts vs KU D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
MIZ +5.4 pts
−6.4 pts vs MIZ D
W · +40.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
KU +2.5 pts
W · +45.0
+14.4
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
MIZ +10.3 pts
+4.1
MIZ -6.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
MIZ +6.5 pts
KU +6.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸MIZ power success (#1) against a KU defense ranked #109 at stopping it
- ▸MIZ rush explosiveness (#26) against a KU defense ranked #124 at stopping it
- ▸MIZ yards / rush (#17) against a KU defense ranked #104 at stopping it
- ▸MIZ rushing ppa / play (#15) against a KU defense ranked #86 at stopping it
- ▸MIZ points / scoring opportunity (#55) against a KU defense ranked #120 at stopping it
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Missouri Tigers offense vs Kansas Jayhawks defense
ranks of 135| MIZ off | KU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 43% | 48% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 71% | 66% | · |
| Plays / game | 67 | 60 | · |
| Possession / game | 31:51 | 29:20 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.18#107 | +0.39#121 | · |
| Pass success rate | 42%#64 | 42%#71 | · |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.43#114 | 1.74#125 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 6.8#91 | 7.3#78 | · |
| Completion % | 63%#54 | 64%#98 | MIZ |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.9%#46 | 2.3%#81 | MIZ |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.23#15 | +0.13#86 | MIZ |
| Rush success rate | 48%#21 | 41%#62 | MIZ |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.08#26 | 1.10#124 | MIZ |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.12#37 | 2.84#57 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 17%#44 | 22%#32 | · |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 89%#1 | 77%#109 | MIZ |
| Yards / rush | 5.3#17 | 4.7#104 | MIZ |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.16#43 | +0.16#106 | MIZ |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.28#76 | +0.43#123 | MIZ |
| Third-down conversion | 45%#30 | 41%#88 | MIZ |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.85#55 | 4.24#120 | MIZ |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 12.8%#23 | 17.7%#28 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.31#76 | 0.83#119 | MIZ |
Kansas Jayhawks offense vs Missouri Tigers defense
ranks of 135| KU off | MIZ def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 47% | 51% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 72% | 65% | · |
| Plays / game | 58 | 55 | · |
| Possession / game | 30:40 | 28:09 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.32#45 | +0.10#14 | MIZ |
| Pass success rate | 46%#31 | 35%#12 | · |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.54#76 | 1.58#81 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 7.7#49 | 5.9#9 | MIZ |
| Completion % | 61%#78 | 57%#19 | MIZ |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.2%#12 | 2.9%#43 | KU |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.22#19 | +0.01#20 | · |
| Rush success rate | 51%#6 | 36%#8 | · |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.87#111 | 0.95#65 | MIZ |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.53#3 | 2.64#23 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 13%#8 | 21%#37 | KU |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 84%#3 | 69%#50 | KU |
| Yards / rush | 4.8#35 | 3.2#13 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.24#12 | −0.08#7 | · |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.27#80 | +0.27#60 | · |
| Third-down conversion | 39%#79 | 35%#38 | MIZ |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.94#46 | 3.36#40 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 14.4%#52 | 19.8%#8 | MIZ |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.08#47 | 0.92#109 | KU |
Season
| MIZ | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| 54.0 | Points for / game | 51.0 |
| 14.0 | Points against / game | 6.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| W | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| MIZ | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1715 | Elo | 1586 |
| #21 of 240 | Rank | #51 of 240 |
| +5.3 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +4.6 |
| +11.1 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +6.4 |
| 1409 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1450 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| MIZ | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| +15.4 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | +3.3 |
| 0.196 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.247 |
| 0.039 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.252 |
| 45% / 35% | Success rate (off / def) | 48% / 42% |
| 1.22 / 1.27 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.18 / 1.43 |
| 808 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 685 |
| 42% | Returning production | 18% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2025 | KU 31 at MIZ 42 | MIZ · MIZ covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- MIZ +7.2 pts
- Home field
- KU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- MIZ +0.2 pts
- Weather / roof
- -1.3 pts on the total
- Model margin
- MIZ by 4.3
- Model total
- 48.2 vs 51
Market · 4 books
- Spread
- MIZ -6.5
- Total
- 51 · opened 51.5
- Moneyline
- MIZ -260 · KU +200
- Best price
- MIZ -218 draftkings · KU +205 fanduel
| Book | KU spread | Total | MIZ ML | KU ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| betmgm | +6.5 (+100) | — | — | — |
| draftkings | +6.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-112/-108) | -218 | +180 |
| fanduel | +6.5 (-105) | 50.5 (-110/-110) | -260 | +205 |
| hardrockbet | — | — | -275 | +200 |
Spreadopened MIZ -6.5 · now MIZ -6.5
Totalopened 50.75 · now 51 ▲ 0.3
Consensus of the books we track, hourly, since we first priced the game. The arrow on the spread is from the home side: ▲ means the home side is laying more.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.